London events in October 2024
Your guide to the best stuff to do, see, eat and drink across London during October 2024
This autumn, London comes alive with seasonal events and cultural highlights. Halloween celebrations take over the city with both family-friendly and adult events. Culture vultures can enjoy the BFI London Film Festival, London Literature Festival, and Black History Month events. Art enthusiasts shouldn't miss new exhibitions at the British Museum, Serpentine, and Barbican, plus the Frieze art fair. Theatre highlights include David Tennant in 'Macbeth' and a new musical version of 'The Devil Wears Prada'. For food and drink lovers, Oktoberfest and London Cocktail Week offer plenty of opportunities to raise a glass to the season.
1. Watch some brilliant new movies at the 68th BFI London Film Festival
This year’s BFI London Film Festival will kick off on Wednesday, October 9 with Steve McQueen’s World War II drama Blitz at the Royal Festival Hall. From there, the UK’s biggest film festival will be pressing play on its 68th edition, featuring 11 days and nights of movies, archive works, short films VR and XR experiences, talks, panels and parties. As in recent years, screenings will take place at Royal Festival Hall, BFI IMAX, BFI Southbank, and Bargehouse for the LFF Expanded XR strand, as well as at five London partner cinemas: Curzon Mayfair, Curzon Soho, the ICA, Prince Charles Cinema and Vue West End. Very much not a festival that’s just for the critics and VIPs, the LFF remains the most accessible of the world’s big film festivals, so you’ve got every chance of scoring seats to its packed line-up of new movies when tickets go on sale in September.
2. Get your skates on at Canary Wharf Ice Rink
Canary Wharf shakes off its business image a little with the return of its long-running ice rink this winter. From October through to late February, you’ll be able to spin and drift around the 1,200-square-metre arena, so whether you’re looking for a pre-Christmas activity or a fun way to kick off the New Year, this bad boy’s got you covered. Talking of covered, the whole thing is under a canopy that means not even the unpredictable British weather can spoil a sesh here. There’ll also be a ringside bar and themed DJ nights to ramp the good vibes up even higher.
3. See Elton John’s music adaptation of hit noughties comedy ‘The Devil Wears Prada’
In 20
4. Let down your synthetic wig at one of these Halloween events in London
5. Dive into the city’s macabre past at London Month of the Dead talks and tours
London Month Of The Dead’s annual programme returns this spooky season to get you in the mood for Halloween with some chilling – and fascinating – events. Ramp up to the big day throughout October with ghostly tours and talks that will take you inside cemeteries and other eerie locations across the city, from Brompton Cemetery to along the Thames. Each event delves into a different topic related to death and the afterlife, whether that’s the scientific side of things (‘Dissection And Dissipation – Life as a medical student in Victorian London’ and ‘The Golden Age Of Death – The dawn of modern forensic science’) or the scarier side (‘A Warehouse Of Homicide – The Metropolitan Police Crime Museum’ and ‘Buried Alive – The horror of premature internment’). These events are frighteningly popular, so book your ticket now.
6. Check out our roundup of perfect autumnal days out in London
Is that the saccharine scent of pumpkin spice in the air? Surprised to see lots of orange orbs taking over your local supermarket? It can only mean one thing: autumn is upon us in all its crispy-leafed, russet splendour.
From glowing sunsets, to bracing walks and cosy pubs, there are lots of things that make up the ultimate autumnal day trip and London has them in spadefuls. Whether it’s nestling up in an old-school whisky tavern with a wee dram, collecting up armfuls of pumpkins from the city’s premier markets or exploring Gothic cemeteries.
7. Celebrate the season and pick your favourite pumpkin for just £5
This autumn, celebrate the season by picking your perfect pumpkin straight from Hobbledown’s patch for just £5! Whether it's a family day out, a fun date, or a trip with toddlers, enjoy seasonal delights, street food, and Instagram-worthy photo spots in a hidden green oasis in West London. Located near Hounslow Heath, the pumpkin patch offers a variety of pumpkins to choose from. With a combined ticket, make it a full day by exploring Hobbledown's adventure playground and zoo before heading to the patch!
Find you perfect pumpkin for just £5* at Hobbledown Heath, only through Offers.
8. Give your brain a workout at New Scientist Live
Come get your brain tickled by talks from the smarties at top universities and scientific institutions and get interactive with some hands-on experiences that bring the latest research and technology in science to life. Explore everything from how hospitals will change in the future to taking a VR rollercoaster ride and getting up close with a bug zoo. Saturday and Sunday are for everyone, while the Monday is a special day for school visits.
Top Tips
- Book theatre tickets early to avoid disappointment
- Check weather forecasts and dress appropriately for outdoor events
- Many Black History Month events are free but may require booking
- Consider a London Cocktail Week pass for drink discounts citywide
Bank of England base rate held at 5%: what does this mean for mortgages?
What’s happened to the base rate?
The Bank of England has held the base rate, following last month's drop to 5% from 5.25%.
The base rate held at 5.25% for 11 months prior to last month's cut, having risen rapidly from a low of 0.1% in November 2021.
Higher base rates were needed to control inflation, which reached 10% in early 2023 and is currently hovering at 2.2%, just above the Government’s target of 2%.
The decision to hold the base rate, rather than increase it, will be welcome news for businesses and households alike, as it’s a sign that borrowing costs are not likely to increase.
As we look to next year, city economists are forecasting that it’s likely the base rate will fall to 4% by the end of 2025.
What does the base rate hold mean for mortgages?
The cost of a mortgage is not directly set by the Bank of England official base rate. Lenders mainly source their finance for fixed rate mortgages in the money markets.
The cost of this money is influenced by the expected direction of base rates, among other things.
Most borrowers using a mortgage to buy a property are on fixed rate loans for 2 or 5 years.
In the days leading up to the base rate announcement, two-year swap rates, that's the rates at which banks borrow money, started to drop from 4.3% to 4%.
Five-year swap rates dropped from 3.9% to 3.7%.
The situation has been improving for fixed mortgage rates too.
The latest Bank of England data for a five year fix 75% LTV has fallen to 4.3%, the lowest level seen in the last 2 years.
Based on current predictions, the mortgage rate forecast for 2025 is that rates will continue to go down, falling to around 4% by the end of next year.
Our Director of Research and Insight, Richard Donnell, says: “There is a mix of hope and expectation that average mortgage rates starting with a 3 will become the norm at some point soon, supporting those refinancing and breathing more life into the sales market by supporting home buyers.
“The underlying cost of finance for fixed rate loans has fallen in recent months as expectations for base rate cuts ebb and flow.
“This means average mortgage rates of 4-4.5% for a 5 year fix.”
But to help buyers, mortgage stress-testing needs to come down from around 8% to 6%.
“While the 'pay rate' for loans is falling, affordability stress tests continue in the background,” says Donnell. “This used to be 3% over the Standard Variable Rate and is now 1% over the revert rate once the initial deal comes to an end.
“This means lenders are typically stress testing new business at around 8%, although this appears an area where lenders are likely to be innovating to support new business and affordability.
“With city forecasts that the base rate will plateau at 3-3.25% by 2025/2026 it’s not unreasonable to assume the 5 year SWAP rate might plateau at this level.
“This will put average mortgage rates in the high 3% and low 4% range as the new normal.”
How will the base rate holding impact home buyers and the housing market?
The housing market is steadily adjusting to higher mortgage rates, with the worst of the impact felt in 2023.
2024 got off to a good start: households that put decisions on hold last year have returned to the market knowing that base rates aren’t going to rise any higher.
“The housing market is on track for 10% more homeowners moving compared to last year, and Zoopla expects average house prices to be 2% higher by the end of the year,” says Donnell.
"A key sign of confidence returning to the sales market is that buyers are paying almost 97% of the asking price. This is the highest it’s been for 18 months..
"Mortgage rates of 4-5%, while higher than the ultra low rates of 2019-2021, are becoming more manageable for home buyers. This is demonstrated by more sellers and more sales being agreed.
"Further growth in household incomes will help improve affordability, especially as we expect incomes to rise faster than house prices over the next 18 months."
What’s the impact on the mortgage market?
The mortgage market remains very competitive with lenders offering a wide range of mortgage deals for all types of buyer. Rates are changing all the time and responding to the outlook for the cost of borrowing.
If you’re looking to take out a new mortgage within the next six months, you can lock in the best rates available today.
When booking in a new mortgage deal, you can approach individual banks and building societies to find out their best rates. Or, you can work with a mortgage broker who will scour the market to find the best deals available to you.
Mojo Mortgages is part of the Zoopla family and works with over 70 different lenders across thousands of mortgage products.
Mojo won’t charge you for their services, because they charge the lender you choose to go with instead.
And if mortgage rates drop between now and the time your deal is due to start, you can ask your broker to rescan the mortgage market for you.
Key takeaways
- Bank of England base rate holds at 5%
- But swap rates, the rates banks pay to borrow money, have been falling in the last few days
- And the latest Bank of England data reveals 5-year, fixed-rate deals have fallen to 4.3%, the lowest level seen in the last 2 years
Should I buy my first home in 2024?
Mortgage rates have fallen by 1.2% since this time last year, saving the average first-time buyer £100-a-month in mortgage payments and £4,000 on a deposit.
A third of homes sold in the UK each year are bought by first-time buyers (FTBs).
But last year’s spike in mortgage rates meant buying a first-home became prohibitively expensive for many.
Highly motivated buyers either saved for bigger deposits or bought a smaller home than originally planned.
Others paused in their search, waiting for the cost of borrowing to fall.
Since the beginning of this year however, things have started to look up and our data shows demand for first homes has risen 20% year-on-year.
In fact, many first-time buyers are now looking at more expensive properties, averaging £249,100.
Mortgage repayments fall by £1,160 per year
According to Bank of England data, average mortgage rates have fallen from 5.7% last year to 4.5% today for those taking out a new 5-year, fixed-rate mortgage with a 25% deposit.
As a result, we estimate the average deposit is now £4,000 less than this time last year, despite many FTBs looking for larger homes and taking out larger mortgages.
Lower mortgage rates also mean lower monthly repayments, which have dropped from £1,076 to £979* for a typical first-time buyer home.
This translates to a monthly saving of £97 and an annual saving of £1,160.
However, as deposits fall and the prices of what FTBs are looking to buy increase, many are now borrowing more than they would have a year ago.
This, in turn, means that lenders will require a higher income to buy: £57,500 on average, up from £55,800 a year ago.
| Measure | July 24 | Jan 24 | July 23 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Most in-demand price point | £249,100 | £247,200 | £245,700 |
| Average deposit | £56,000 | £59,600 | £60,400 |
| Average mortgage size | £193,900 | £187,600 | £185,300 |
| Monthly repayment | £979 | £943 | £1,076 |
| Income to buy | £57,500 | £56,500 | £55,800 |
Zoopla research using UK Finance and Bank of England data
3-bed houses unquestionably the favourite choice
Half of first-time buyers outside of London are looking to buy a 3-bed house.
Despite mortgage rates rising in recent years, the more affordable end of the 3-bed market is still in reach for many households, especially for those looking to add value to their homes.
The exceptions are London and Scotland, where around a third of FTBs are looking to buy a 2-bed flat, making it the most popular choice in these regions.
This is largely down to the availability of stock in these areas, with flats being most commonly available, and the fact that affordability remains an important factor in the capital, given the high cost of buying a house there.
First-time buyers plan to spend £3,400 more on a home in 2024
Our data reveals FTBs are looking to buy homes costing £3,400 more than this time last year, an increase of 1.4%.
Yet mortgage rates have moderated over the same period, meaning monthy mortgage repayments have now dropped 9% for the average first-time buyer.
The prices of homes FTBs are looking to buy have risen the most in the North West (+4.4%) and East of England (+4.3%) since July 2023.
Prices for these homes were falling this time last year, but today’s reversal demonstrates that FTBs are now prepared to spend more on a home as the cost of borrowing comes down.
As well as being willing to pay higher prices, first-time buyers are also looking for larger homes in the North West and East of England, with three bedrooms or more.
However, in the North East and South of England, buyers are now looking for less expensive homes than in previous years.
This shows that mortgage rates haven’t fallen enough to ease affordability pressures in the South.
And while affordability looks stronger in the North East, first-time buyers are more sensitive to changes in the cost of living, which is why FTBs continue to look for lower-value homes here.
The prices of homes first-time buyers are looking to buy
| Location | July 24 | July 23 | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| South West | £244,400 | £250,900 | -2.6% |
| North East | £126,500 | £128,100 | -1.2% |
| South East | £327,700 | £331,400 | -1.1% |
| East Midlands | £213,800 | £213,700 | 0% |
| Scotland | £158,200 | £157,700 | +0.3% |
| Wales | £176,500 | £174,500 | +1.1% |
| Yorkshire & The Humber | £157,600 | £154,800 | +1.8% |
| London | £411,900 | £401,800 | +2.5% |
| West Midlands | £294,600 | £199,400 | +2.6% |
| East of England | £320,800 | £307,700 | +4.3% |
| North West | £171,500 | £164,200 | +4.4% |
| UK | £249,100 | £245,700 | +1.4% |
What’s the outlook for first-time buyer homes?
In 2024, the situation has improved for first-time buyers.
Growing earnings, modest house price growth and more attractive mortgage rates have boosted buying power for some, encouraging them to return to market.
However, affordability remains a key issue for many households interested in buying for the first time.
We expect mortgage rates to remain above 4% for the foreseeable future.
First-time buyers for whom this remains a barrier may choose to move further afield to access more affordable markets or consider purchasing a smaller property.
Looking to buy in 2024? Our Buying a Home guide has everything you need to know.
* Assumuming same mortgage term of 30 years; mortgage rates of 5.7% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024; LTV of 75.4% in 2023 and 77.5% in 2024; and average price of £245,700 in 2023 and £249,100 in 2024.
Key takeaways
- Mortgage rates fall from 5.7% to 4.5% in a year, cutting £4,000 off the average deposit needed to buy a first home
- Monthly mortgage repayments are also less hefty, down £97-a-month compared to July 2023
- First-time buyers are now looking to spend £3,400 more on their first home as a result
Amazing things to do in London in September 2024
The best events, exhibitions and all-round great things to do in London in September 2024
September in London may be ‘back to school’ time, but it’s also when the city comes alive. A lot of London’s cultural scene goes into semi-hibernation mode over the summer, but come autumn it kicks back into gear with landmark museum exhibitions, new theatre and art shows and brand new food and drink openings.
There’s also a whole host of city-wide fests taking over the capital, including Open House London – giving us a chance to get a sneak peek inside usually private buildings – London Design Festival and Totally Thames – the brilliant celebration of London’s watery main artery complete with an illuminated flotilla installation.
While autumn is still on the horizon, summer isn’t over yet. So make sure you grab your final chance to enjoy the spoils of the season by booking a seat at some of London’s best rooftop bars and alfresco restaurants and lolling about in the city’s best urban beaches, parks and lidos. Get your diary out and start filling it up now.
1. Keep up with the spectacular programme of outdoor theatre at Greenwich + Docklands International Festival
London’s spectacular free outdoor Greenwich + Docklands International Festival. As the programme continues thrugh September look out for theatre from international companies Gecko and Good Chance which will join forces for ‘From Here On’ (Sep 6 and 8), a new work marking the eighty-fifth anniversary of the Kindertransport and the return of the beloved Dancing City programme of dance in, er, The City.
2. Watch Ben Whishaw and Lucian Msamati head up this major revival of Beckett’s ‘Waiting for Godot’
Despite the late Irish titan’s estate being famously resistant to any sort of major innovation when it comes to revivals of his work, Samuel Beckett’s existential masterpiece ‘Waiting for Godot’ still gets wheeled out semi-frequently. But, this is the first time it’s had a full-on West End production since Ian McKellen and Patrick Stewart did it in 2009, though, as heavyweights Lucian Msamati and Ben Whishaw take on the role of tramps Estragon and Vladimir, lolling about in a no-man’s land while kidding themselves that the mysterious Godot is going to visit them sometime soon. The great director James Macdonald will helm things.
3. Enjoy the sights and stories of the river at Totally Thames Festival
Every year, London’s famous river gets a whole festival of art installations, performances, and talks devoted to her watery charms, many of which are free to check out. This year’s Totally Thames Festival has scores of events throughout September, all dotted along riverside locations from Richmond to Barking & Dagenham.
The month's biggest event is the Great River Race (Saturday September 21) from Tower Hamlets to Richmond, where 330 crews from across the world spend the morning speeding down the Thames on wooden rowboats, many of them in jaunty fancy dress costumes. But there are plenty of other, less splashy highlights. You can clamber aboard antique vessels at St Katharine Docks Classic Boat Festival and see site-specific, river-inspired dance performances, visit a mudlarking exhibition, walk and masterclass, take the Tideway boat tour, listen in to special lectures and see a performance from a kids’ choir.
4. Get inspired at London Design Festival
London is widely recognised as one of the design capital’s of the world. Cementing this title is the annual Design Festival, a colourful and thought-provoking celebration of some of the world's best designers, who interrogate the boundaries of design through events, exhibitions and installations.
This year, the festival will showcase special projects and installations embodying major
themes across society such as sustainability, AI and inclusivity. For this edition, there will be new insights into the ideas of play and creativity. Lookout for ground-breaking projects such as ‘Vert’, a design which is looking to transform city life through the creation of sustainable wooden structures covered in plants designed to cool urban areas.
As ever, the festival is spread across 11 Design Districts including spots like Chelsea College of Art and the V&A Museum, where the events will reflect the unique identity of each area.
5. Immerse yourself in the eras on the Taylor Swift Songbook Trail
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ll know that 2024 is Taylor Swift’s year – again, largely thanks to her continued Eras Tour. As the tour rumbles on, The Taylor Swift Songbook Trail will take over the V&A this summer, with 13 installations celebrating not just the success and achievements but also the creative process of a modern pop history maker. The trail will take visitors around the museum’s permanent galleries, offering a look at costumes and accessories worn by Swift and insights into her songwriting, storytelling, and music videos at each stop.
Along the way, there’ll be stations dedicated to her self-titled debut album, her 2008 hit single ‘Love Story’, her first completely self-written album ‘Speak Now’, the crossover landmark of the ‘Red’ album and its follow-up ‘1989’ and her darker turn in ‘Reputation’. Elsewhere, you’ll find odes to ‘Lover’, the ‘folklore’ and ‘evermore’ eras, ‘Midnights’ and ‘The Tortured Poets Department’, plus the pioneering pursuit of re-recording her first six albums as ‘Taylor’s Version’s.
6. Party in the street at Camden Inspire
Community-powered street festivals are an essential staple of London summertime and Camden’s celebration of grassroots culture is a must-visit. Partnered with the likes of The Roundhouse, Green Note, Fiddlers Elbow and Camden Open Air Gallery, expect a jam-packed programme of topnotch live music, spoken word, poetry and dance. There’ll also be street art galleries, creative workshops and plenty of delicious local food on offer.
7. Catch new drama about the extraordinary true story of the first Black woman to enter an English beauty contest
The first new play proper to run outdoors at the Globe since ‘I, Joan’, actor Anne Odeke’s play tells the extraordinary story of Princess Dinubolu, the first woman of colour to enter a beauty pageant in the UK: way back in 1908, Southend-on-Sea. Almost certainly not a princess, the mysterious woman was initially barred from the contest, but insisted upon entering – and succeeded after no rules were found stopping her. Odeke stars, in a production directed by Robin Belfield.
8. See into the future at Regent Street and St James’s Future of Food Festival
Foodies, pay attention – the culinary hotspots of Regent Street and St James’s will play host to the Future Of Food Festival in September, with a range of events to tickle your tastebuds. Join panel talks with industry experts to get some insight into where food is heading in the coming years, tuck into some unique dining experiences and meet some of the most innovative chefs, restaurateurs and suppliers in the country. There’ll be the opportunity to try dishes by 2-Michelin-starred chef Alex Dilling and feast on sustainable treats at Bentley’s Oyster Bar & Grill and Wilton’s. Across the whole of September, the area will be a treasure trove of promotions, with select restaurants offering £10 dishes and other discounts, while the Discovery Zone will take you on a journey via taste, smell and touch to find out what the future of food is.
9. See a snapshot of the UK’s art scene at The Turner Prize 2024
The Turner Prize is returning once again to London (every other year it goes to a different city, last year it was at the Towner Gallery in Eastbourne), bringing with it its annual celebration of the best artists in the country. This year’s shortlisted artists are Pio Abad, Claudette Johnson, Jasleen Kaur and Delaine Le Bas. The Turner Prize has lost almost all of its old ability shock, and even a lot of its ability to annoy, but it’s always an interesting snapshot of art in the UK.
10. Tour the city’s architectural wonders at Open House London
Ever wanted to have a nosy around some of London’s coolest private buildings? Open House London gives city dwellers free access to some of the capital’s architectural wonders that aren’t usually open to the public – from schools and offices to domestic homes and places of worship.
The hugely popular, capital-wide fortnight-long festival is back for 2024, with properties open for you to peak in – for free – all across the capital’s 33 boroughs. All you need to do is create an account online and you can register to see as many buildings in the programme as you like. As well as the festival’s usual line-up of community events, drop-in sessions and tours, this year, there are also plenty of events tailored specifically to young people.
Rents start falling in major cities
Our exclusive research for the BBC reveals rents are starting to fall in parts of the UK, as the pace of rental inflation hits its lowest level in nearly 3 years.
We’re past peak rental inflation
The recent boom in rent rises for new lets is coming to an end.
Rents have been rising faster than earnings for the past 3 years but they are now increasing at their slowest pace since 2021.
In news that will be welcomed by under-pressure renters looking to move, this is a clear sign that we’ve passed peak rental inflation.
Demand for rented homes has fallen by 39% over the last year, albeit off a high base, and the rental market has moved from ‘red-hot’ to still ‘hot’.
Our data shows there are 17 people still chasing every home for rent, which is double the pre-pandemic average seen between 2017-2019.
But the supply of rental homes available per estate agent has slowly started rising, increasing by 17% in the last year.
This is because more homes are being bought by corporate landlords, while lower mortgage rates are making it a little easier for renters to buy their first home, freeing up rental properties.
However, the general availability of homes for rent remains a major challenge for renters: the average agent still has a third fewer rental homes available than the pre pandemic average.
Rents rise at slowest pace in nearly 3 years
Rents for new lets have risen by 5.7% over the last 12 months, reaching an average £1,232 per month across the UK.
But in the last 6 months, they’ve risen by just 1.6%, the lowest increase seen since 2021.
The heat is coming out of the rental market, mainly as a result of affordability pressures.
If rises remain on this trajectory, rents for new lets are on track to be 3-4% higher over 2024, versus 8% in 2023 and 11% in 2022.
75% of cities record lower rent inflation
Changes in supply and demand at a city and local level are impacting rents to different degrees.
A slowdown in overseas student applications and a weaker labour market both explain some of this weakening in demand for renting.
Falling mortgage rates are also helping some renters to become first time buyers, freeing up rental homes for others.
In some cities, rents have been rising so fast they have ‘over-shot’ what renters are prepared to pay. As a result, we’re now seeing rents falling in some areas.
Our rental index tracks rents across 64 cities. In the first 6 months of 2024, rents have fallen in 5 cities: Nottingham, London, Worthing, Brighton and Glasgow. Meanwhile, the rate of inflation has dropped significantly across 75% of cities.
However, rents are still rising fast in some, for example Bradford and Liverpool, where there is headroom for rents to rise at an increased rate.
Overall, rents are rising fastest in accessible suburbs, larger cities and areas where rental properties are still offering some value for money.
Rochdale, Doncaster, Sunderland, Southend and Telford have all recorded rental inflation of over 4% in H1 2024.
Rents fall across a third of London boroughs
London is the UK’s most expensive market to be a renter.
With an average monthly rent of £2,172, almost 70% higher than the UK average, rents here are more than twice the price of many other regions.
The high cost of renting in the capital means affordability is a growing constraint on rental inflation and our index shows rents have fallen in more than a third of London boroughs in the first half of 2024.
The falls have been concentrated in inner east London, led by Tower Hamlets, Newham and Greenwich. And rental inflation has now slowed across all areas of the capital.
Corporate investors are buying new homes for rent, boosting supply and increasing choice, which also explains why rents have been rising more slowly across London, alongside affordability constraints.
However, higher growth rates are still being registered in outer London areas, led by Merton and Havering, where rents are below the London-wide average.
Key takeaways
- Rents start falling in London, Brighton, Glasgow, Nottingham and Worthing
- A third of London’s boroughs see rents come down
- Across the UK, rents are expected to rise by just 3-4% in 2024, a big drop from the increases seen in 2022 (11%) and 2023 (8%)
Will mortgage rates go down in 2024?
Mortgage rates are not expected to fall further this year, but rising wages are likely to improve affordability for buyers as house prices stay flat.
Buyers are currently watching the Bank of England’s latest Base Rate announcements like never before.
But despite the latest much anticipated drop from 5.25% to 5%, mortgage rates are expected to remain at around 4-4.5% for the rest of the year.
That said, mortgage rates have come down since June last year, when the average five-year fixed-rate loan for a 75% loan-to-value mortgage peaked at 5.8%, adding hundreds of pounds to monthly mortgage repayments for buyers and homeowners.
Today, that same mortgage has now fallen to an average rate of 4.4%.
Here’s how that difference pans out in terms of monthly mortgage payments.
Monthly repayments on a five-year fixed-rate 75% LTV over 25 years
|
Mortgage value |
£200,000 property value, 25% deposit |
£300,000 property value, 25% deposit |
£400,000 property value, 25% deposit |
£500,000 property value, 25% deposit |
|
5.8% monthly repayments |
£1,106 |
£1,422 |
£1,896 |
£2,370 |
|
4.4% monthly repayments |
£962 |
£1,237 |
£1,650 |
£2,063 |
Mortgage rates unlikely to drop below 4% in 2024
Buyers holding out for lower mortgage rates in 2024 may be disappointed, as they are unlikely to decline much further this year, even if inflation and the Base Rate edge lower.
Our Executive Director of Research, Richard Donnell, says: ‘Expectations of lower interest rates are already priced into fixed rate mortgages today.
‘Lower interest rates would likely result in further modest declines in mortgage rates but how far depends on how low money markets see base rates falling.
‘Economists currently expect base rates to fall to 3.5% by the end of 2025, which would imply mortgage rates remaining in and around the 4%+ range.’
Why are mortgage rates going down?
Mortgage rates began to go down in the latter half of 2023, as inflation dropped from 6.3% in September to 4.2% in December.
In June this year, inflation hit its 2% target, but it has risen slightly since then and is currently sitting at 2.2%.
However, the Bank of England held the base rate at 5.25% 7 times in a row, until it met in August this year, when it lowered it to 5%.
By the end of 2025, it's expected to lower it to 3.5%.
The bank rate determines the interest rate the Bank of England pays to commercial banks that hold money with them. It influences the rates those banks charge people to borrow money or pay on their savings.
What factors affect interest rates?
Inflation is the main reason interest rates have been high in the UK over the last 30 months. An unexpected rise in demand - or decrease in supply - can cause inflation to rise.
At the end of 2021, the Bank of England began to raise the base rate in order to reduce inflation and help slow down price rises for everyday items including food, petrol, gas and electricity.
It has worked - and inflation is currently hovering around its 2% target, but the Bank of England needs to keep the base rate high enough to ensure inflation doesn't rise again.
Global shocks can also have an impact on inflation, such as wars, pandemics or the blockage of major transport routes like the Suez Canal, as they affect the flow of goods around the globe.
How buyer affordability could improve in 2024
All that said, there are other ways in which buyer affordability is likely to improve this year: and that’s wages rising while house prices hold steady.
This trend is happening already, and it’s improving confidence among buyers.
‘Rising household disposable incomes are expected to be the primary driver of improved housing affordability over 2024,’ says Donnell.
‘Disposable incomes are projected to increase by 3.5% over 2024, while house prices look set to remain broadly flat over the year.’
In fact, momentum in the housing market is already ticking up and the number of sales agreed has climbed 9% year-on-year.
This, in turn, is encouraging more sellers to come to market, improving the choice available for buyers.
More choice for buyers in 2024
There are now more homes for sale than at any point in the last six years. This is improving choice for home buyers and supporting more sales.
The average estate agent has 33 homes for sale, which is 16% higher than a year ago.
More supply means more sellers, most of whom are also buyers.
And more choice for buyers means more opportunity for wriggle room when it comes to paying the asking price.
‘Our view is that a greater availability of homes for sale will keep price rises in check,’ says Donnell.
‘This means buyers have more choice and room to negotiate, especially where homes are failing to attract buyer interest in a timely manner.’
Affordable areas remain popular with buyers
While momentum is up among buyers and sellers across the UK, in more challenging mortgage rate times, it’s the affordable areas that are proving to be the biggest draw for buyers.
‘Sales activity is up across the board, with the strongest growth in sales taking place in areas with more affordable house prices, such as Yorkshire and the Humber (11%) and the North West (13%),’ says Donnell.
Meanwhile, the strongest growth in new sellers listing homes can be seen in the South West (28%) and North East (26%).
Over in the capital, the supply of homes for sale is just 8% higher, which means house prices are rebounding faster here than other parts of the UK, as more buyers compete for properties.
Asking price discounts narrow as house prices hold steady
While it remains a buyers’ market right now, buyers should know that the discounts being offered by sellers are starting to get smaller.
UK buyers are currently paying 96.8% of the asking price, which is up from 95.6% last October.
In value terms, this averages at £16,600 below the asking price for sales agreed in June 2024, compared to £23,000 below the asking price in October 2023.
There continues to be a north/south divide in house prices, with homes in the south continuing to register house price falls as homes in the north see house price growth.
But all areas are recording higher annual price inflation than six months ago, as sales volumes recover and pricing levels firm.
So while there’s still room to negotiate, house prices are starting to hold steady in 2024 and we don’t expect to see a further fall in property prices this year.
Key takeaways
- Mortgage rates expected to stay in and around 4+% for the rest of 2024
- House prices will hold steady as rising wages improve affordability
- There are now more homes for sale than at any point in the last six years
- The Base Rate is expected to fall to 3.5% at the end of 2025
What are the fastest-selling homes in the UK?
Looking to sell and sell fast? Learn which homes in the UK are being bought the quickest within 30 days of hitting the market.
Half of sales agreed happen within 30 days of listing
When it comes to house sales, you’d be forgiven for thinking that they all take a lengthy amount of time. But according to our research, this isn’t always the case. We found that 49% of sales agreed in England and Wales occur within 30 days of the home being listed for sale. In Scotland, the stats are even more impressive, with 75% of homes being sold within a month. This is because homes there are marketed with a valuation and survey upfront, which tend to allow for a faster time to agree a sale.
Ultimately, how fast a home will sell can only be judged on a case-by-case basis. It depends on the asking price, property type, size, condition and local demand for each type of home. Setting the right asking price from the start is perhaps the most important to securing a faster sale. In England and Wales, the current gap between the fastest and slowest-selling property types is almost 2 weeks.
What’s the fastest-selling property type?
Between April and June 2024, 2-bed terraced homes were the fastest-selling property type on Zoopla in England and Wales.
The average time to agree a sale on this property type is 27 days, which is 5 days faster than the national average of 32 days. To complete a sale, sellers typically need another 4 months, depending on the complexity of the transaction.
In the past 3 months, 6 in 10 of sales agreed for 2-bed terraced homes were within a month of listing.
Why do they sell so fast you ask? The simple answer is that 2-bed terraced homes appeal to various types of buyers. They're a good value-for-money option for first-time buyers with limited funds, and for downsizing empty-nesters who aren’t ready to give up features like a garden.
They’re also relatively rare. Only 7% of homes that came on the market in the last 3 months were 2-bed terraces. This drives up the competition.
2-bedroom terraced homes have consistently been the fastest-selling type of home in more expensive regions (London and East of England) over the last 6 years. Now, they’re also the fastest-selling type of home in more affordable regions. This signals a shift in buyer requirements in the face of higher borrowing costs.
What are the four types of homes most likely to sell within 30 days?
2-bed terraced homes aren’t the only property type to sell quickly. The other types of homes that sell the fastest within a month are:
-
2-bed semi-detached homes
-
3-bed terraced homes
-
3-bed semi-detached homes
Collectively, these four property types make up 46% of UK homes, but only 32% of all homes listed for sale. This mismatch signals an undersupply of more affordable family homes, which encourages stronger competition amongst buyers. People looking to sell these types of homes can expect more early offers than owners of larger houses and flats - as long as they price their homes correctly.
What’s the slowest-selling property type?
Detached homes with 4 bedrooms or more take the longest time to find a buyer, with an average of 40 days. This is 13 days slower than 2-bed terraced homes.
Earlier this year, we reported a spike in supply of 4-bed homes for sale, boosting the choice for those looking to buy large homes. This, combined with weaker demand due to higher mortgage rates, means buyers take longer to decide to buy larger homes.
What are the regional variations in time to sell a home?
Our research also shows local variations in time to agree a sale, with available stock type, demand and pricing playing a role.
The popularity of 2-bed terraced homes is most evident in the South West, Yorkshire and the Humber, West Midlands and parts of the London commuter belt.
Flats, which typically take longer to sell than houses, are the fastest-selling property type in the North West, particularly in Manchester, Liverpool and Warrington.
Moving away from the UK's major cities, 3-bed homes are still the fastest-selling.
Detached houses with 4 bedrooms or more are currently the slowest-selling, but we also find examples of terraced and semi-detached homes with the same number of bedrooms to be the fastest-selling homes. This includes parts of Cambridgeshire, mid-Wales, Northamptonshire and the Scottish Highlands.
What’s next for time to sell?
How long it takes to sell a home varies from season to season. Typically, homes sell a week faster in the first six months of the year and we can expect fewer homes to achieve a sale within 30 days in the coming months of 2024.
Mortgage rates have fallen to an average of 4.5-5% which is enough to support more sales. A cut to the base rate this year could boost market sentiment, and support demand and the pace at which sales are agreed.
Homes that are not well-presented or priced incorrectly for the local market will continue to take longer to achieve a sale or may not sell at all. Homes that have had to undergo an asking price reduction of 5% or more are taking an average of 70 days to agree a sale, which is over 2x the average. This shows the importance of talking to local estate agents to decide on the most suitable asking price. It gives you the best chance to attract buyer demand and boost the possibility of getting a sale agreed.
Key takeaways
- 2-bed terraced homes are the fastest to achieve an offer as 6 in 10 sell within 30 days
- Larger, detached homes with 4 bedrooms or more take 40 days to sell on average
- Time to sell varies by location, with available stock type, demand and pricing playing a role
- We expect homes to sell at a slower pace over the second half of 2024 as buyer demand decreases in later months of the year
Bank of England cuts base rate: what does this mean for mortgages?
The base rate has been cut for the first time in four years and now sits at 5%. Let's take a look at what this means for mortgages and the housing market.
What’s happened to the base rate?
The Bank of England has cut the base rate by 0.25% to 5%. Base rates have been stuck at 5.25% for 11 months having risen rapidly from a low of 0.1% in November 2021. Higher base rates were needed to control inflation which is now back in line with the Bank’s target of 2%.
The decision to cut the base rate by 0.25% was finely balanced, but will be welcome news for businesses and households alike. It’s a sign that borrowing costs are likely to fall further - though how much further remains to be seen.
As we look to next year, city economists are forecasting that it’s likely the base rate will fall to 4.6%–4.7% by the end of 2025.
What does the base rate cut mean for mortgages?
The cost of a mortgage is not directly set by the Bank of England official base rate. Lenders mainly source their finance for fixed rate mortgages in the money markets. The cost of this money is influenced by the expected direction of base rates, amongst other things. Most borrowers using a mortgage to buy a property are on fixed rate loans for 2 or 5 years.
Uncertainty over the outlook for the base rate over the last 3 years has led to the mortgage rate rising and falling between 4% and 6% for a typical 5 year fixed rate at 75% loan to value (LTV). These fluctuations have been driven by financial markets and their expectations for future borrowing costs.
At the start of 2024, there were expectations of several base rate cuts over the second half of the year. These expectations have been scaled back, and this explains why average mortgage rates have risen back above 4.5% for 5 year fixed rate loans in recent months.
Today’s cut to the base rate may lead to mortgage rates returning to where they were earlier in the year. However, this depends on what the city thinks will happen to base rates into 2025.
How will this impact home buyers and the housing market?
The housing market is steadily adjusting to higher mortgage rates, with the worst of the impact felt in 2023.
2024 has got off to a good start: households that put decisions on hold last year have returned to the market knowing that base rates aren’t going to rise any higher.
The housing market is on track for 10% more homeowners moving compared to last year, and Zoopla expects average house prices to be 2% higher by the end of the year.
A key sign of confidence returning to the sales market is that buyers are paying almost 97% of the asking price. This is the highest it’s been for 18 months.
Mortgage rates of 4-5%, while higher than the ultra low rates of 2019-2021, are becoming more manageable for home buyers. This is demonstrated by more sellers and more sales being agreed. Further growth in household incomes will help improve affordability, especially as we expect incomes to rise faster than house prices over the next 18 months.
What’s the impact on the mortgage market?
The mortgage market remains very competitive with lenders offering a wide range of mortgage deals for all types of buyer. Rates are changing all the time and responding to the outlook for the cost of borrowing.
If you’re looking to take out a new mortgage within the next six months, you can approach individual banks and building societies to find out their best rates. Or, you can work with a mortgage broker who will scour the market to find the best deals available to you.
Mojo Mortgages is part of the Zoopla family and works with over 70 different lenders across thousands of mortgage products.
Mojo won’t charge you for their services, because they charge the lender you choose to go with instead.
And if mortgage rates drop between now and the time your deal is due to start, you can ask them to rescan the mortgage market for you.
Key takeaways
- Base rate cut to 5% after 11 months at 5.25%
- This cut is expected to deliver a confidence boost for home buyers
- Average mortgage rates have already fallen this year
- Fixed rate mortgages already factor in outlook for the base rate and are set to remain in 4-5% range into 2025
Things to do in London August 2024 edition
Prepare yourself for a spectacular month with our selection of the best events, exhibitions and things to do in London during August 2024
August in London is here and there are plenty of reasons to be excited about it. But, the main one? Notting Hill Carnival is back again, taking over the streets of west London for the bank holiday weekend.
When you’re not having a riotous time dancing to tinnitus-inducing dance hall with a pocket full of Red Stripe, there are plenty of other ways to get your fill of live music this month. All Points East, Field Day, Body Movements and Boiler Room Festival will all be pitching their tents and blasting music across various parks in London. UK Black Pride is also back this year with its ‘biggest and boldest’ event yet.
Fill your peepers up with even more culture as big fixtures on the summer arts and theatre scene like Greenwich + Docklands International Festival come back for another year of experimental fun.
Before September hits, let’s hope there’s enough sun for a London lido swim, lazy days in the city’s parks, beer-garden pints, outdoor-cinema sessions and all the other alfresco pleasures that summer in London has to offer.
August is a month for long holidays, a time for winding down, lying around and discovering that mint Cornettos are just as delicious as you remember. But it’s also a time for making memories, so make the most of your days off with the help of this Big List of things to do in August in London 2024.
1. Dance in the W11 streets at Notting Hill Carnival
For a lot of Londoners, Notting Hill Carnival on the August Bank Holiday Weekend flashes by in a blaze of feathers, Red Stripe and tinnitus. To those who make it happen, it’s a year-round operation to create one of the biggest and oldest street parties in the world. This Carnival weekend, it's expected that more than two million people will flock to west London to dance in the streets of W11. It’s free to join family day on the Sunday and the Monday which is for the hard partiers. It’s a celebration of freedom and Caribbean culture, with an iconic parade showcasing the best of mas, soca, calypso, steel bands and soundsystems. What are you waiting for?
2. Watch spectacular free outdoor theatre at GDIF festival
You can always rely on the annual free Greenwich + Docklands International Festival of outdoor theatre and performance art spectaculars to announce itself with a proper ‘how are they going to do that?’ piece of programming. This year the festival will return with a theme of All Change, with its 17-day programme focusing on both activism and climate change. It’s already obvious that the big 2024 showstopper is likely to be Australian physical theatre company Legs on the Wall’s ‘THAW’ (Aug 24-25), an epic eight hour aerial performance staged on a two-and-a-half-tonne block of ice suspended high in the air by a crane.
3. Ditch Edinburgh for the Camden Fringe
Edinburgh isn't the only place with a bursting, brilliant fringe, and indeed as the Scottish capital’s iconic event becomes ever more expensive, the once scrappy outsider Camden Fringe looks ever more like a serious alternative for the London-based. Returning for its eighteenth edition, it’s smaller than Edinburgh by a long shot, but still boasts hundreds of events all over Camden, taking in everything from the expected stand-up sets and experimental theatre to kids’ shows, dance, and even magic. Runs tend to be for a night or two rather than the entire month, and prices are bargain basement by London standards, usually less than a tenner.
4. Indulge your most base carnivorous desires at Meatopia
If you’re a carnivore with a big appetite for BBQ, Meatopia has your name written all over it. The boozy food fest is a veritable utopia for meat lovers, with 50 chefs invited down over four days to cook up a storm. This year’s line-up includes Texas BBC specialists MELT, Ben Tish – who’ll bring a taste of Sicily to the event – and Cavita’s Adriana Cavita, who’s an old Meatopia fave.
5. Listen to heavyweight line-ups at All Points East
Over the last six years, All Points East has garnered a reputation for building some of the most exciting and interesting festival line-ups in the UK. Its headliners are often indie or dance-focused big-hitters, while its undercards are packed with cult heroes and rising stars you can say you saw first. Look out for sets from acclaimed producer, rapper and DJ Kaytranada, homegrown hip-hop hero Loyle Carner, cult star and TikTok fave Mitski, indie sleaze party-starters LCD Soundsystem and a double-hitter of the Ben Gibbard-fronted The Postal Service and Death Cab For Cutie.
6. Explore the Big Fun Art Adventure
A major influx of owls is coming to Haringey this summer. No, not the flying kind, but 30 giant sculptures all painted in bright colours and designs. The installation is part of North London Hospice’s latest fundraising event, the Big Fun Art Adventure, which is creating a walkable trail of art across the area. Some of the owls on display will be painted by famous faces, like Matt Lucas and Rob Biddulph, and when the trail closes in October, the sculptures will go under the hammer to raise money for the hospice. Find the route on an app or paper map, if you prefer.
7. Watch the Globe’s thoughtful, funny take on Shakespeare’s dumbest comedy ‘The Comedy of Errors’
‘The Comedy of Errors’ can sometimes feel like a less successful dry run for the more grown-up ‘Twelfth Night’, but Sean Holmes’s deft Globe production steers an almost effortless path through it, however. He makes it a fun, uncluttered production that avoids gimmickry. It puts storytelling at the centre and it’s about as easy as is ever going to be to follow the plot about two sets of identical twin brothers, with the same names as each other, who are separated as children and grow up in different, rival city-states, now causing merry heck as they end up in the city of Ephesus at the same time as their long-lost father Egeon faces execution there. Basically, the plot is still pretty much a mess, but this show’s a hoot.
8. Listen to Alan Bennet and then party into the night at Queen’s Park Book Festival
Too many book festivals don’t have enough festival. It isn’t that there’s too much emphasis on books (how could there be?), but most of the time, there’s just not enough partying, drinking and grooving with your fellow bookworms. Not Queen’s Park Book Fest. Held, as always, in the public park, it’ll combine literary celebs with stand-up comedy, local history and lectures on pressing issues of the day. And crucially, each day is capped off by a party into the night. This year highlights include legendary playwright and author Alan Bennett, ‘Monty Python’’s Michael Palin, former Green Party leader Caroline Lucas, restaurant critic Jay Rayner, and much more.
Are you paying too much for your mortgage?
27% of homeowners with a mortgage are on their lender’s standard variable rate. Could you be one of them?
When your mortgage deal period ends, you’ll normally move onto your lender’s standard variable rate.
A standard variable rate (or SVR) is usually a lot higher than your existing rate. Currently the average is averaging out at 8.65% across all lenders, and it can change at any time your lender decides.
Some lenders move you onto a ‘follow on’ rate instead, which can be even higher than their standard variable rate.
According to recent research by mortgage broker Habito, one in 10 mortgagees believe that paying a more expensive rate on their mortgage meant they’d be paying off their mortgage quicker.
It doesn’t. It simply means you’re paying the lender more interest instead.
Your lender will be able to tell you in advance what your monthly payment will be once your current deal ends.
How much more expensive is a lender’s standard variable rate?
An SVR or ‘follow on’ rate can be between 2% and 3% higher than the average five-year or two-year fixed rate mortgage.
And the lender can raise the rate at any time.
When the Bank of England increases the Base Rate (which it has done 14 times since December 2021) SVR and tracker rate mortgages may increase too, as they usually follow the Base Rate.
However there are exceptions. And some lenders have opted not to increase the rate on their SVR mortgages when the Base Rate has risen.
Your lender will always let you know what’s happening with your mortgage rate.
Current SVRs and fixed rate deals from major lenders
Let’s take a look at the standard variable rate and fixed rate mortgage deals currently being offered by some of the major lenders.
|
Lender |
SVR |
5-year fixed |
2-year fixed |
|
Barclays |
8.74% |
4.5% |
4.95% |
|
Halifax / Lloyds |
8.74% |
4.32% |
4.67% |
|
HSBC |
6.99% |
4.28% |
4.79% |
|
Nationwide |
7.99% |
5.04% |
4.32% |
|
Santander |
8.25% |
4.37% |
4.78% |
|
The Mortgage Works (buy to let) |
8.49% |
4.49% |
4.79% |
|
Virgin Money |
9.49% |
4.64% |
5.14% |
|
Yorkshire BS |
7.99% |
4.43% |
4.77% |
If you had a £200,000 mortgage spread over 25 years on a £250,000 property, you could end up paying several hundred of pounds more in interest each month on the lender’s SVR.
To cite Virgin Money’s rates above as an example:
On the standard variable rate of 9.49%, you’d be paying £1,746 a month.
At the two-year fixed rate of 5.14%, you’d be paying £1,185 a month.
With the five-year fixed rate of 4.64%, you’d be paying £1,127 a month.
That’s a potential difference of £619 a month, or £7,428 a year, between a lender’s standard variable rate mortgage and fixed rate deal.
Use our mortgage calculator to work out what your monthly payments could be.
Why are so many people on standard variable rate mortgages?
Habito’s research suggests many homeowners are slipping onto their lender’s SVR without even realising it or knowing that they have an alternative.
But it’s always worth contacting a broker 3-6 months before your current mortgage deal is due to end.
You can book in a new deal up to six months in advance.
And if a better rate comes up between the time you booked the deal and the time it’s due to begin, you can simply book in that rate instead.
Your mortgage broker will be the best person to advise you on what to do.
Financial concerns
One in 10 homeowners were frightened of lenders scrutinising their finances, given the current economic climate.
This is where a broker can help. They have an in-depth knowledge of the mortgage market and know the rules that different lenders operate by.
Once your broker has an understanding of your financial circumstances, they’ll know which lenders to approach on your behalf.
Unaware of mortgage alternatives
One in 10 didn’t realise it could be possible to get a cheaper mortgage deal.
A mortgage broker will scour the market for you to find the cheapest mortgage rates available to you.
Too much hassle to switch mortgages
In a recent survey by Which?, 41% of homeowners on an SVR mortgage said they’d be unlikely to switch to a cheaper deal.
They felt it ‘wasn’t worth the hassle’ or they ‘hadn’t really thought about it’.
This in part may be because homeowners with smaller mortgages are less likely to feel the financial hit when moving onto an SVR.
But when the savings can run into hundreds of pounds a month, it’s a call to a broker that’s worth making.
Fears of being in negative equity
Other homeowners were concerned that they might be in negative equity.
Negative equity is when a property you own is worth less than the mortgage you're paying on it.
What is negative equity?
Most lenders won't let people with negative equity switch to a new mortgage deal when their existing one ends. Instead, they'll normally be moved onto their standard variable rate.
You can find out if you’re in negative equity by checking the balance left on your mortgage and inviting estate agents round to value your home.
If you are in negative equity, it could still be worth speaking with a mortgage broker, as they may be able to find a lender that could help.
Mortgage rates set to stay at around 4+% in 2024
In good news for homeowners and buyers, mortgage rates are now holding steady and look set to plateau at around or just over 4% for the rest of the year.
Inflation has now come down and so have swap rates - the rates the banks pay to borrow money.
Swap rates are based on what the markets think the interest rate will be in the future.
Right now, the average mortgage rate for a 5-year fixed rate at 75% loan to value has reached 4.59%, across the big six lenders.
The reduction in swap rates will take time to feed through into mortgage rates, and our Executive Director - Research, Richard Donnell, believes mortgage rates are unlikely to drop further this year.
Will mortgage rates go down in 2024?
Whether you need to remortgage now or in six months time, if your current mortgage deal is coming to an end soon, it’s well worth contacting a mortgage broker.
They will be fully up to speed on the latest mortgage market trends and current rates available.
And they are in the best place to advise you on getting the cheapest possible mortgage deal for you.