Bank Rate holds at 5.25%, so when will rates drop?
The Bank Rate holds at 5.25%, despite inflation hitting its 2% target for the first time in 3 years.
Bank rate holds at 5.25%
The Bank of England has kept the Bank Rate at 5.25% for the seventh time in a row.
The Bank has held rates at 5.25% in an effort to combat inflation, leading to higher mortgage repayments but also higher savings rates.
The Bank Rate, sometimes known as the 'base rate’ or ‘interest rates’, affects the rates that lenders charge their borrowers.
Inflation hits 2% target for first time in three years
Inflation slowed to 2% in the 12 months to May, hitting the Bank of England’s target for the first time in almost three years, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics on 19 June.
With rising prices coming back under control, all eyes had been on the Bank to see if the news might mean a cut in the interest rate, which has been frozen at a 16-year high of 5.25% since August 2023.
However, uncertainty over whether cuts would come had led to a rise in mortgage rates in recent months, with average rates on two- and five-year fixed rate deals creeping up since February, according to Moneyfacts.
The average two-year fixed rate now stands at 5.93%, while the average five-year fixed rate stands at 5.50%.
John Fraser-Tucker, Head of Mortgages at online mortgage broker Mojo Mortgages said: “Naturally, the BoE tends to stay neutral during a General Election, so making a rate change weeks before voters head to the polls could be seen as influencing voters.
“Moreover, the housing policies of the elected government are likely to impact the outlook for the base rate going forward.
“Labour’s manifesto seems to focus more so on first-time buyers as they’ve stated that they’ll make the existing mortgage guarantee scheme permanent under the name 'Freedom to Buy'. Comparatively, the Conservatives have focused on policies that they believe will bring down mortgage costs.
“Given the contrasting focuses, it makes sense for the BoE to wait and see which government is elected before lowering the base rate, otherwise it could add more uncertainty to the mortgage market right now.”
Choice of mortgages available increases to highest level since 2008
Meanwhile in good news for borrowers, the choice of mortgages available has increased, with borrowers now having 6,629 mortgage deals to choose from, the largest number available since February 2008, according to Moneyfacts.
However, buyers will need to act quickly to secure the best deals, as the average shelf life of a product has reduced from 28 days at the start of May to just 15 in June.
What does the news mean for existing borrowers?
Borrowers on variable or tracker mortgages will be relieved that their rate is unlikely to go up. Though they’ll be disappointed the Bank Rate wasn’t cut.
According to the HomeOwners Alliance, the average standard variable rate (SVR) now stands at 8.18%, down from 8.19% last November. The rate has stayed at this level since the start of April.
Meanwhile, borrowers locked into fixed-rate mortgages will not be impacted - yet. But borrowers who are due to come off fixed-rate deals and remortgage soon are likely to see their mortgage repayments jump, squeezing household budgets further.
Annual mortgage repayments for the average buyer are now a staggering 61% higher than they were three years ago, before mortgage rates started climbing.
It means that in pure monetary terms, they have soared from £7,100 to £11,400. Two thirds of that hike is fuelled by higher mortgage rates, while one third is due to higher house prices.
First-time buyers are finding it tricky to afford mortgage repayments in the first place. Because of recent interest rate rises, mortgage affordability is now the biggest challenge for first-time buyers, according to the Building Societies Association (BSA).
What is the forecast for interest rates?
The Bank is generally expected to cut interest rates this year (assuming there are no surprises in store). But opinions on when exactly this could happen, and by how much, naturally vary.
Some economists believe the rate will be cut in August, while others are suggesting it may be as late as September.
As a general rule: if interest rates fall, the mortgage rate forecast would be for mortgage rates to fall too. But time will tell if this happens.
Our Executive Director of Research, Richard Donnell, believes that even if inflation and interest rates edge down, mortgage rates are unlikely to drop much further this year.
Donnell explains: “Lower interest rates would likely result in further modest declines in mortgage rates but how far depends on how low money markets see base rates falling.
“Economists currently expect base rates to fall to 3.5% by the end of 2025, which would imply mortgage rates remaining in and around the 4%+ range.”
Key takeaways
- The Bank of England has held the Base Rate at 5.25% for the 7th time in a row
- Many had been hoping for a drop in the Base Rate after inflation hit its 2% target for the first time in 3 years in May
- The news will be disappointing for mortgage holders, who have been longing for mortgage rates to go down since the bank rate hit its highest level in 16 years in August 2023
London events in July 2024
London Calling: Your Guide to a Sun-Kissed July
Get ready for a sizzling July in London! With the sun high in the sky, the city transforms into a vibrant hub of outdoor activities. Dive into a refreshing lido, savor a delicious meal alfresco, or sip on a cool drink while taking in the panoramic views from a rooftop bar or beer garden. London's parks burst with life this time of year, offering the perfect escape for a picnic or leisurely stroll. Craving a beach vibe? Hit one of the urban beaches or unwind under the stars at an open-air cinema.
July is also prime time for London's music festivals. And for a touch of floral beauty, don't miss the sprawling fields of lavender and sunflowers in all their blooming glory. This guide brings you the best exhibitions, shows, and activities to make your July in London unforgettable.
1. Where to watch Euro 2024 matches in London
The spectacular goals, missed penalties and euphoric wins of the UEFA Euros are back. Our boys are battling it out in Germany for a chance to become the UEFA Euro 2024 winners. Whether you’re a die hard footie fan or just hoping for an excuse to neck a few pints, you’re going to want to know all the best spots in London to catch the matches.
2. BST Open House
BST has boasted some of the most exciting London line-ups over the last couple of years, but organising worldwide mega stars to perform in the park clearly isn’t enough work, so BST is also hosting eight days of free activities. All Things Orchestral will be performing a stunning show of classical music, hosted by Myleene Klas and there’s a free open-air cinema, pop-up bars, discussion panels plus chances to play tennis, cricket and football. Norman Jay MBE will be taking to the decks, and there’s even a chaos-fuelled chance to play Bongo’s Bingo.
3. Lord Mayor’s Hot Air Balloon Regatta
4. Monster Jam
If your idea of a great time is watching giant trucks race their way across a massive stadium, then you’ll be blown away by Monster Jam. This unique sporting experience is returning to London in July, promising adrenaline-boosting action as you watch 12,000-pound monster trucks tear up the dirt. Prolong the fun with the Pit Party, where you can get up close to the trucks before they go into battle, take pictures and get autographs – from the drivers, obviously.
5. Find sunflower fields near London
Did a visit to see Van Gogh’s ‘Sunflowers’ at the National Gallery fail to provide your flower fix? Get neck-deep in heliotropic heaven at these golden fields full of custard-yellow blooms.
6. London Athletics Meet
Gear up for the buzz of the Paris 2024 Olympics at the London Athletics Meet at London Stadium. Part of the Wanda Diamond League series, this event is the last athletics competition before the big tournament across the channel kicks off, making it a crucial part of the athletes’ final preparations. Bonus: all the limbering up you’ll need to do is warm up your vocals to cheer the participating players on and help spur them to (hopefully) gold medal victory.
7. ‘Fangirls’
Aussie writer and performer Yve Blake scored a cult domestic smash in the immediate pre-pandemic era with ‘Fangirls’ (aka ‘FANGIRLS’), a subversive musical that she wrote the book, lyrics and music for, and even initially starred in. Inspired by interviews with actual pop star fangirls, the musical follows Edna, a 14-year-old Australian girl madly in love with one ‘Harry’, a member of a massive-selling pop group (hmm, rings a bell). When the band comes to Sydney she’s determined to meet Harry – at any cost.
8. The North Face Climb Festival
If you’re more of a sit-back-and-watch kinda person as opposed to a get stuck in kinda person, we’ve got some good news. North Face is hosting a Climb Festival at Canary Wharf South Dock, but don’t worry – you don’t have to do any climbing. Instead, watch some of the world’s top climbers (including North Face reps Caroline Ciavaldini and James Pearson) scale 16 metre walls and complete deep water solo climbs, from the safety of the ground. There’ll also be talks from climbers, a clothes repair space plus a handful of DJs.
9. Explore lavender fields around London
It may be known for its sleepy scent and soothing properties, but there’s nothing dozy about the explosion of colour happening right now in London’s lavender fields. Here are the best places to treat your eyes and nose to this year’s epic summer blooms.
The Parent Trap: how millions of UK parents feel 'trapped' into living near grandparents
With grandparents stepping in to help reduce the cost of childcare, millions of parents are finding themselves feeling trapped in locations close to granny and granddad.
UK parents are stuck in a ‘parent trap’ and feel forced to live near to their children's grandparents in order to get help with childcare, according to our latest research.
Our data of 2,000 UK parents with children under the age of 13, found that half (50%), live less than five miles from their child’s nearest grandparent and seven in 10 (68%) live within a 30 minute journey.
Yet this may not always be by choice. More than half (57%) rely on childcare support from at least one grandparent (rising to 72% of those living within 30 minutes of their nearest grandparent).
Average family receives over £4,600 of free childcare from grandparents
The average family relies on nine hours of grandparent childcare support a week, equating to 468 hours per year. With parents estimating they spend £9.90 per hour on childcare (including nursery, babysitting, summer camps etc), this is worth a whopping £4,633.20 of free childcare annually, at a time when costs are already spiralling.
With nursery costs now higher than the average UK monthly mortgage*, it’s not surprising that many parents are reliant on the ‘nursery of grandma and grandpa’.
However, the flip side is that over half (52%) of parents who receive childcare support from grandparents say they now feel ‘trapped’ when it comes to where they live.
A key reason for this was financial restrictions, with 36% of parents who have grandparent support saying they could not afford to be without it as professional childcare would be too expensive.
Parents would need to earn £8,000-a-year more to forgo free childcare
This support is particularly crucial for parents who have children under school age. Although 18% of parents in this category who receive more than 10 hours a week of grandparent support say that they prefer grandparents looking after their children, the financial stretch required to swap to professional childcare is clear for the remaining 82%.
These parents believe they would need to increase their personal incomes by an average of £8,055 a year in order to be able to forgo free childcare.
Many are even having to put their own home owning aspirations on hold to get free childcare support.
Parents unable to afford larger homes near grandparents
More than four in 10 (44%) of parents feeling trapped would like to move to a larger home, but prices are not affordable in the area they need to be in order to receive grandparent support.
A quarter (24%) say that they would like to move to a different area but can’t as they need to remain near their parents.
Some are even being prevented entirely from getting on the housing ladder, with almost a third (29%) of those who get grandparent support saying that they would like to buy somewhere but are having to rent in order to stay near to their parents or parents-in-law.
20% of parents choose to move nearer grandparents
Whilst some put their moving aspirations on hold, others make a conscious decision to move closer to grandparents after having children.
Nearly two in five (19%) parents said that, since having children, they had moved closer to grandparents, whilst 11% are currently planning to move.
Over the summer holidays, grandparents increase their weekly support by 26% - from 9 hours a week on average to 11.3 hours weekly.
Some parents even admit to asking their parents or parents-in-law if they will move closer to help with childcare support.
Of all the parents surveyed, 28% had discussed moving homes with their children’s grandparents to be closer for childcare reasons. Of those, a notable 31% have had a parent or parent-in-law move house to be closer to help with childcare.
Parents agreed that on average, around seven miles away was the ideal distance to live from a grandparent - close enough to be on hand for regular support, but far enough away that they would not drop in constantly and unannounced.
The research also showed that many parents make do with little to no familial support, with 32% receiving no childcare support from grandparents or any further relations.
Our Consumer Expert Daniel Copley says: “As a parent, I know first-hand how expensive childcare can be, and how valuable family support is. As such, many Brits feel that they are trapped when it comes to where they live, with it being vital that grandparents are nearby to help out.
“This is leaving many in the tricky spot of not being able to afford to buy a place close to their parents, forcing them to rent when they might otherwise be able to get on the housing ladder. Or simply living in an area they don’t really want to live in.
“My advice would be to have open and honest conversations with grandparents about the support they are prepared to offer, and how far they would be willing to travel. Zoopla’s travel time tool can then show all the properties that are within that distance. Equally, grandparents may be amenable to moving. Many may be looking to move to a smaller home, or free up some of the equity in their home to fund their retirement, and moving to a more affordable location may work for them as well.”
* Research conducted by Mortar Research in June 2024 amongst 2,047 UK parents with kids under the age of 13.
Key takeaways
- More than half (57%) of UK parents rely on their children’s grandparents for childcare support, with the average family receiving 468 hours of free childcare a year, worth over £4,600
- This is leading to over half (52%) of reliant parents feeling ‘trapped’ into living nearby their children’s grandparents
- Housing aspirations are being prevented by the ‘parent trap’ - with four in 10 (44%) unable to move to a bigger home because of affordability within proximity of grandparents
- To help, we have a range of tools, from our travel time tool to the new, AI-powered personalised listing recommendations which match users with suitable properties based on their recent site behaviour, to help parents finds their ideal home
General election 2024: What does each party’s manifesto say about housing?
We've compared the housing policies of the major political parties so you don’t have to.
The general election is nearly here, and all the major political parties have now released their manifestos. Of course, we’re particularly interested in what each political party has to say about housing, but there’s a lot to compare and get your head around.
That’s why we’ve done the hard work for you - breaking down the housing policies of the Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats so you can easily compare their pledges in each area.
What are the political parties’ policies on housing?
Policy Area |
Conservative |
Labour |
Liberal Democrats |
New Homes |
1.6 million new homes over the next parliament. |
1.5 million new homes over the next parliament. |
380,000 new homes per year. |
Social Housing |
Renew Affordable Homes Programme for developers. |
Significant increase in social and affordable housing, focusing on social rented homes. |
150,000 new social homes per year, giving local authorities power to end Right to Buy. |
First-time buyers |
Stamp duty exemptions; new Help to Buy scheme; mortgage guarantee scheme. |
Comprehensive mortgage guarantee scheme; first chance for first-time buyers on new-builds. |
Rent payments to progressively give social tenants ownership over 30 years via a Rent to Own model. |
Renters |
Complete Renters Reform Bill and ban no-fault evictions. |
Ban no-fault evictions; extend Awaab’s Law; empower renters to challenge unreasonable rent increases. |
Ban no-fault evictions; introduce national register of landlords; set three-year default tenancies. |
Leasehold reform |
Cap ground rents at £250 and end the misuse of forfeiture. |
Reform the leasehold system, ensuring commonhold becomes the default tenure. |
Abolish residential leaseholds and cap ground rents. |
Homelessness |
Continue plans to end rough sleeping. |
Develop a new cross-government strategy to end homelessness. |
End rough sleeping within the next Parliament and scrap the Vagrancy Act. |
Key takeaways
- All three parties pledge to ban no-fault evictions for renters
- All three parties pledge to reform or end the leasehold system
- All three parties pledge to build at least 1.5 million new homes over the next parliament
What income do you need to buy a home in 2024?
The required income to buy a home has increased in recent years. But what does that mean in real numbers? And where is the most affordable place to buy in the UK?
Affordability is one of the greatest barriers facing people looking to buy a home. We talk a lot about deposits, but the household income needed to finance a mortgage is an equally important factor. This is because income levels are used to assess the affordability of a mortgage through the loan-to-income assessment.
First-time buyers tend to have lower deposits than existing owners who may be looking to buy a larger home. Typically, the higher the deposit, the lower the income needed to buy.
Data shows that the typical first-time buyer (FTB) takes a mortgage that is 3.3x their household income. Existing homeowners looking to move take out mortgages that average 3x their household income.
Using these average loan-to-income ratios, and the average asking price of homes for sale on Zoopla, we can calculate the household income needed to buy a home for FTBs and existing owners.
A FTB looking to buy a typical first home (priced at £250,000), with an average 20% deposit, would need an annual household income of £60,600 in order to buy. This figure is £2,400 higher than a year ago.
Those upsizing to an average-priced home currently on the market (priced at £335,000), with a larger average deposit of 35%, would need a household income of £72,600. This is £3,400 higher than a year ago.
The average UK household income is currently £33,300, according to the ONS. This means that two average earners buying together have a household income of £66,600, which is enough to buy a typical first-time buyer home. However, homeowners on the same income are likely to struggle to upsize to an averagely-priced UK home without a bigger deposit.
First-time buyers need two average salaries to buy
First-time buyers often buy with smaller deposits - 20% on average - according to ONS. To help make buying affordable, FTBs tend to look for cheaper properties. For example, the average asking price of a home chosen by a first-time buyer is 34% lower compared to the market average.
The income a first-time buyer will need in order to buy is closely linked to the value of homes in the area. FTBs in northern England and Scotland require lower earnings compared to those in the Midlands, Wales or southern England.
Those looking to buy their first home in the North East require the lowest income to buy in the UK. A typical FTB home in the region costs £120,000, which requires an income of just under £29,100 in order to buy. In areas such as Hartlepool, homes priced around £80,000 are most popular with FTBs. Although homes sold at this price point are typically fixer-uppers or small flats, the household income needed to buy these types of properties is only £19,400.
At £31,500, Scotland has the second-lowest required income for first-time buyers. And in areas such as Ayrshire, savvy folks can buy with a household income of under £20,000.
Back in England, the further south you go, the more you need to earn in order to buy. The average first home in the Midlands is priced below £200,000, meaning the required income is below £49,000. And in southern England, the average income to buy ranges between £33,900 in Great Yarmouth to a whopping £193,900 in Kensington and Chelsea.
Upsizing homeowners need an income of £72,600 to buy
Those looking to move up the next rung of the ladder will find that a higher house price will need a higher income to buy. The average asking price of a home currently listed for sale on Zoopla is £335,000. Homeowners looking to buy such a home with a 35% deposit will need an income of £72,600.
Those planning to buy an averagely-priced home in northern England need a household income between £31,400 (Blackpool and Hull) and £78,000 (Trafford in Manchester).
A homeowner upsizing to an average home in Scotland (£200,000) would require a household income of £43,300. Yet, the income needed to buy can range from £27,100 in East Ayrshire to £62,800 in the East Lothian area.
Those buying in the Midlands or Wales will typically need a household income above £54,000. However, upsizers won’t be as required to earn as much in locations such as Blaenau Gwent (£32,500), Stoke-on-Trent (£39,000), Bolsover (£46,600) and Boston (£46,600).
Upsizers in the south of the country will need a household income higher than the income of two average earners, which currently stands at £66,600. This is down to higher house values, with asking prices commonly exceeding £300,000.
However, home owners buying in smaller cities in the south may require a lower income. House prices in cities such as Plymouth (£52,000), Norwich (£54,200), Peterborough (£56,300), Portsmouth (£57,400) and Southampton (£58,500) offer more opportunities to buy on a smaller income.
Those upsizing in London will need the highest level of income in Britain - £124,600 on average. However, our analysis shows that those looking to buy an averagely-priced home in East London (Barking and Dagenham, Havering and Newham) and South East London (Croydon, Lewisham, Bexley) will need an income below £100,000.
Why are the required incomes to buy so high in 2024?
The required income to buy has increased by 4% over the last year largely due to higher asking prices and a slight decline in the loan-to-income ratio.
To adapt to this, buyers can put down a larger deposit to reduce the size of the mortgage. If this isn’t an option, a more practical solution could be to look further afield by extending your search area, or consider other types of property.
Our data shows that relatively few first-time buyers are changing what they want from a property as they balance home ownership with complex family needs. The key route to getting more value for money is to widen the search radius and consider more markets.
We find that 2 in 5 buyers in southern England are looking further than a 10 mile radius to find their next home due to the affordability pressures of the region.
Key takeaways
- The average first-time buyer (FTB) needs an income of £60,600 to buy a home - the equivalent of two average UK salaries
- An existing home owner looking to upsize needs a household income of £72,600 to buy an averagely-priced home
- The required income to buy has increased by £2,400 for FTBs and £3,400 for upsizing home owners over the last year
- The most affordable areas to buy on lower incomes are in northern England and Scotland
Rental Market Report: June 2024
The average rent for new lets in the UK is £1,226 after a +6.6% rise in the last year. Rents for new lets will rise more slowly this year, but only a major supply boost will help with rental affordability.
The average rent for new lets in the UK is £1,226 as of April 2024 (published in June 2024).
Rents have risen 6.6% in the last year, the slowest rate of growth in 2.5 years.
Key figures
April 2024 |
January 2024 |
December 2024 |
|
Average rent (new lets only) |
£1,226 |
£1,223 |
£1,219 |
Annual rental growth |
+6.6% |
+7.8% |
+8.2% |
UK rental inflation lowest for 2.5 years
UK rental inflation lowest for 30 months
The average monthly UK rent has risen by £80 in the last year, taking it to £1,226pcm.
Overall, the rate at which new lets are rising annually has now slowed to 6.6%, down from 10% a year ago.
This is the lowest rate of annual rental price inflation for 30 months (since Oct 2021) as demand slows from a high base and affordability constraints among renters mean rents can’t rise much further.
If the rental increases that took place in the last three months were converted into a yearly rate, the annual rate of inflation would be 3%.
This is the lowest it’s been for the month of April since 2021, and points to a continued slowdown in the rate of rental inflation for the rest of 2024.
Demand weakens off a high base but supply remains low
The chronic imbalance between rental supply and demand is starting to narrow but remains well out of kilter.
Demand for rented homes is slowing off a very high base as one-off pandemic factors start to recede and mortgage rates fall below 5%.
Rental demand is down 25% over the last year but competition remains high, with 15 households chasing every rental home. This is more than double the pre-pandemic average of just six which was seen between 2017-2020.
More choice of homes for renters
The average number of homes for rent per estate agent has increased by almost a fifth (18%) on this time last year, which is boosting choice.
However, the supply of homes for rent remains a third lower than the pre-pandemic period, as low investment in rented homes keeps the overall stock of private rented homes broadly flat.
The national picture of lower rental demand and a modest increase in supply is replicated across all regions and countries of the UK.
Demand is down by up to 30% across the East of England, followed by London (-28%), the South East (-27%) and Scotland (-27%).
Traditionally, more rental homes become available during spring before demand kicks in between May and September each year, and supply is currently up the most in both London (23%) and Scotland (24%).
London leads the slowdown in rent inflation
The headline rate of rental inflation has slowed modestly across most areas of Great Britain over the last year.
London has led the slowdown with average rents rising by just 3.7%, down from over 13% this time last year.
The average growth in rents across the rest of the UK outside of London is currently 8%, with the highest increases in rents are being recorded in the North East (9.5%) and Scotland (9.3%).
The underlying level of rental inflation - 3-month growth expressed on an annual basis – is lower than the annual rate of growth across all areas, pointing to a slowdown in momentum in rental growth.
In London, the underlying rate of rental inflation is negative (-1.3%) as average rents have fallen by 0.3% over the last 3 months
Rents start to fall in several cities
Rents have fallen over the last quarter across a small number of cities. This is down to rent levels for new lets adjusting to localised changes in available supply and more price-sensitive demand.
Seasonal influences are also a factor, with January to April traditionally being a quieter period before the usual seasonal upturn in rental demand between May and September.
This upturn is linked to both the jobs market and the end and start of the academic year.
Our index shows average rents have fallen slightly over the last quarter in:
-
Nottingham (-1.4%)
-
Brighton (-1.1%)
-
York (-0.4%)
-
Glasgow (-0.4%)
-
Cambridge (-0.3%)
-
London (-0.3%).
These are modest falls in the context of the recent rapid growth in rents, but this is clear evidence that rental market dynamics are starting to turn in some markets.
Rents have continued to increase across other UK cities over the last 3 months, where there is affordability headroom for rents to rise.
Rents in regional towns and cities such as Gloucester, Sunderland and Northampton have risen by up to 3% over the last 3 months.
Growth in rents and average earnings starts to narrow
Rents for new lets have been rising faster than average earnings for over 2.5 years, since October 2021.
As rental inflation slows, the gap to earnings growth, currently at 6%, is starting to narrow.
The growing unaffordability of renting should start to act as a drag on rents rising.
However, rent levels are being supported by continued strong demand-side pressures and low levels of new investment in private rented housing.
The picture varies across the country and much depends on how affordable rents are relative to earnings and the scale of the headroom for rents to rise further.
At a region and country level, the proportion of gross earnings spent on rent is at its highest level for a decade.
The rapid rise in rents over the last 3 years has worsened rental affordability. However, there is a wide variation in how much of average earnings are spent on rent.
It is not surprising that rents are currently rising fastest in the North East and Scotland, where rental costs account for the lowest proportion of gross earnings.
In contrast, London has the highest rents, which already account for a higher proportion of average earnings. That explains why rent levels here are now back to 2015 levels, having fallen over the pandemic.
Wide divergence in rent inflation across London
London is a complex and highly segmented rental market, making regional averages potentially misleading.
Rents are the highest in inner London, where there is strong corporate demand, with more renters sharing properties compared to outer London.
Rental inflation has slowed the most in inner London areas, with rents in Westminster and Tower Hamlets up by less than 2.5% over the last year and posting modest quarter-on-quarter declines.
In contrast, rents are up by over 10% in outer London areas such as Barking & Dagenham, Redbridge and Havering, where average rents are 20% below the London average.
Supply-demand imbalance unlikely to improve
Looking ahead, we do not believe that the imbalance between rental supply and demand will improve materially over the next 12 months.
Levels of new investment in the private rented sector remain low, while demand is set to remain above-average.
This means rents will continue to increase at a slowing rate.
Rental demand shows little sign of moderating
The demand drivers of rented housing show little sign of moderating significantly in the near term.
The labour market is the primary driver of demand, alongside the need for student homes and the difficulty of becoming a first-time buyer (FTB) with higher mortgage rates.
Additional pressure is also coming from a lack of affordable homes available for households in acute housing need.
The labour market has been losing momentum in recent months, and there is continued reliance on immigration to fill gaps in the jobs market.
The number of overseas students studying at British universities has also expanded, adding to rental demand across most UK cities.
Three-quarters of FTBs come from the private rented sector. Higher mortgage rates since 2022 have made it harder for FTBs to buy a home and this has kept more households in the rented sector.
There were a fifth fewer purchases by FTBs in 2023-4. The decline in mortgage rates over 2024 is leading to a recovery in FTBs but there is continued demand for rented homes from would-be buyers waiting for mortgage rates to fall further.
We expect demand for rented homes to continue to moderate slowly as one-off pandemic factors recede, but the higher cost of home ownership and a lack of affordable homes means the rented sector will continue to see continued demand on multiple fronts.
Outlook and the politics of private rented housing
The market is still on track for a continued slowdown in rental inflation to 5% over 2024. Recent levels of rental growth have been unsustainable, meaning a slowdown is inevitable.
This is being driven more by changes in demand than any expansion in supply.
On the policy front, while the Rental Reform Bill failed to make it onto the statute books, it seems likely that rental reform will return in the next parliament whichever party forms the next Government.
While changing the protections for existing renters is important, the greatest imperative is to boost the stock of homes for rent – both private and affordable - through greater housing delivery.
Only by boosting supply can we improve choice for renters and increase the chances that consumer demand will start to exert more influence over landlord decisions and the quality of rented homes.
While there has been more political focus on the challenges facing the private rented sector, true progress will only be demonstrated by political parties setting out specific plans and goals for the future of the private rented sector in manifestos.
A healthy private rented sector is vital for economic growth and a more balanced housing market.
Key takeaways
- The rate at which rents are rising has slowed down to 6.6% for new lets, down from a high of 16% in October 2021
- London is leading the slowdown, with rents rising at just 3.7% in the last year, as rents start to fall in some cities
- Competition for properties remains high, with 15 households chasing every rental home (more than double the pre-pandemic average of six)
- However, choice is starting to increase, with the average number of homes for rent per estate agent up by 18% on this time last year
- We believe the rates at which rents are rising will continue to slow to 5% over 2024
The best things to do in June in London
June in London is here. Make it the greatest month of your year yet with our guide to the best art exhibitions, plays and general shindigs taking place around the city in June 2024.
June in London is filled with a sense of excitement. It’s that ‘school’s out!’ feeling, until you remember that you left school years ago, and ‘summer holidays’ don’t really exist for adults. Shame.
June is also the start of summer in London, which means the capital’s beer gardens are at their prime, the city parks are at their prettiest, the open-air theatre season gets into full swing and eating alfresco is on the cards at some of London’s best restaurants. Plus, expect to see long queues in south west London as tennis fans line up to bag a place at the epic Wimbledon championships.
June in London also means its time for London Sundance Film Festival, the Roundhouse’s poetry festival The Last Word and Open Square Gardens. So mark them all off in your calendar and prepare to have a ball fit for a queen.
1. Marylebone Summer Festival
A mini golf course, live music, alfresco bars and dining, a farmers market and a dog photobooth: you’ll find all this and more at Marylebone’s 20th annual summer fair which takes over Paddington Street Gardens for a jam-packed Sunday in June. Fashion and wellness brands in Marylebone Village will be handing out offers (think free ice cream at Rixo and Mud Australia) and street stalls will be handing out snacks and beverages from the array of local cafés. Have your pooch’s ‘pawtrait’ done at ‘Bark in the park’ in Marylebone Church gardens, or teach your furry pals something new at a trick training workshop. Essentially, it’s a summer fête dialled up to 11.
02. Taste of London
Munch your way through dishes from the great and the good of the capital’s restaurant scene at this sprawling culinary festival. Set in the picturesque surroundings of central London’s Regent’s Park you can chow down on food from Korean rabata (barbecue) restaurant Roka, South American fusion from YOPO and Big Mamma’s quintet of maximalist Italian joints (that’s Gloria, Circolo Popolare, Ave Mario, Jacuzzi and Carlotta) are among the line-up of restaurants peddling plates to celebrate the event’s 20th anniversary. If you’re not in a food coma by the end, there’ll also be kitchen masterclasses, chef talks and tastings to get involved with. Our advice? Have some Rennies on hand.
03. Kew Midsummer Fete
With over 100 stalls, a traditional Victorian fun fair, a beer tent and a tea tent, a dog show with a VIP judge, tug of war, and live local bands, Kew’s Midsummer Fete is a brilliant way to chill out on the village green this month. But there’s plenty more to 2024’s edition of the popular afternoon, including a karate display, inflatables and a charity raffle, too. The best part? Entry is free, but all your well-spent cash will be going to some very worthy causes – last year raised more than £22,000 for local charities like Richmond Food Bank and the Riverbank Trust.
4. West End Live
Musical theatre fans, get ready for outdoor dancing and sing-a-longs with some of the West End's biggest stars: West End Live is back! It's the initiative that turns some of the most expensive forms of entertainment in London into the cheapest fun going. Each year, casts of some of London's best West End musicals emerge blinking into the open-air for a weekend of free alfresco performances in Trafalgar Square, accompanied by fun photo ops, merch stalls, and bags of showbiz atmosphere.
5. Lambeth Country Show
The Lambeth Country Show is back. Just as it has done since 1974, this year’s show will bring countryside pursuits to Brockwell Park. Over its history, certain traditions have developed, like getting a glimpse of Vauxhall City Farm’s alpacas, downing a massive carton of Chucklehead’s super-strong cider and joining the long queue to see the pun-derful entrants in the vegetable sculpture competition. Look out for sheep-shearing, sheepdog and owl displays, an on-site mini farm and lots, lots more. Live music will be heard from two stages over the weekend, too.
6. Birds: Brilliant & Bizarre
The Natural History Museum’s big exhibition for 2024 is this massive new celebration of our avian pals. As you can doubtless glean from the title, ‘Birds: Brilliant & Bizarre’ focuses on the weirder end of the feathered spectrum, from actually strange-looking birds to exploring things like the links between pigeons and T-rex, or daring you to sniff a stinky seabird egg. While some of the NHM’s permanent exhibitions can look a little tired these days, its big temporary exhibitions are typically cutting-edge, interactive and hugely fun.
7. Zoo Nights
A reincarnation of Zoo Lates (which ended in 2015), Zoo Nights returns to bring ‘after hours’ fun to ZSL London Zoo. Attractions entrial a packed street-food market, live music, an after-hours look at the reptile house in ‘The Secret Life of Reptiles and Amphibians’, and a ‘The Birds and the Bees’ tour where experts will shed some light on animal sex. For the extreme animal enthusiasts out there, you can even opt for a Zoo Nights VIP Sleepover and rest your head in one of the zoo’s nine lodges. Time to unpack that elephant onsie?
What does a general election mean for the UK housing market in 2024?
The announcement of the UK general election for July 4th 2024 has come earlier than expected—but what does this mean for the housing market?
What impact will the general election have on the housing market?
Overall, we don’t see the election having as big an impact on the housing market as previous years. This is due to there not being a huge divide in policy between the two main parties, with neither having many specifics on housing other than a focus on reforming the private rental sector and boosting housing supply. However, the number of completed sales may now fall slightly short of the 1.1m we expected for 2024.
Businesses and landlords will want to see that political parties have concrete plans - namely for boosting housing supply across all tenures and getting the right reforms to the private rented sector. This will ensure that supply is maintained while giving renters more protections.
What will housing market activity look like over the general election period?
As we run up to summer and the slower period in the housing market, the election announcement is likely to stall the pace at which new sales are being agreed to in the coming weeks.
Most buyers who are close to completing on a house will ideally want to push through and agree a sale now. Those who are earlier in the process may look to delay decisions until the autumn after the election is over.
What does the housing market look like at the moment?
The housing market has been recovering with more homes coming to the market for sale, and an increased volume of sales overall. This is a sign of growing confidence amongst sellers, even though mortgage rates remain at 4.5% to 5%.
Currently, there are 392,000 homes in the sales pipeline that all working their way to completion over 2024. This is 3% higher than this time last year, and we don’t expect to see buyers already in the process of working toward sales to pull out.
The incentive to move remains for many households - in particular for first-time buyers who are escaping rapid growth in rent costs, and upsizers who delayed moving last year when mortgage rates increased.
Key takeaways:
- People who are close to agreeing a sale on a home will want to push ahead
- Early stage house hunters may hold back on decision-making until after the election
- Activity in the housing market has been rising with more homes for sale and more homes being sold
- There are 392,000 homes currently in the sales pipeline, and we don’t expect to see buyers already in this process to pull out
Where is it cheaper to buy than rent?
A third of homes for sale are cheaper to buy than rent, with the average first-time buyer saving £93 a month on a mortgage instead of renting.
A third of homes (150,000) currently for sale can be bought with a mortgage and monthly repayments that cost less than the average rent in the same area, according to our latest research.
The average monthly UK rent is currently £93 per month (8%) more expensive than the average mortgage repayment for a first time buyer (FTB) - an improvement since last summer, when mortgage rates were 1% higher and it was cheaper to rent than buy.
First time buyers should look to urban areas for affordable homes
While some regions have more affordable homes for first time buyers than others, urban areas are the best locations to find homes that are cheaper to rent.
Oadby and Wigston, a suburb of Leicester, has the largest proportion of for-sale homes (82%) with remortgage repayments lower than the local market rent.
Ipswich in Suffolk comes second (80%) and North West Leicestershire (78%) comes third.
The majority of homes for sale in Manchester (62%), Newcastle (68%), Southampton (62%) and Sheffield (51%) are also cheaper to buy than rent, thanks to an abundance of flats - the most common property type in these cities.
This is welcome news for renters who may prefer to buy locally.
Over 40% of homes in the north and Scotland are cheaper to buy than rent
First-time buyers can find 150,000 homes (34% of the total listed) where average monthly mortgage repayments are lower than rents, assuming a 20% deposit.
The North West, North East and Scotland that have the highest proportion of these homes.
Over two-fifths of homes for sale in the North East (48%), Scotland (46%) and North West (44%) are cheaper to buy than rent with the monthly difference between the cost of renting and buying in these areas ranging between £240 and £425.
However, the availability of affordable homes is at the highest risk of falling in these regions as house price inflation has recovered earlier than in the southern regions of England.
It’s a different story for first time buyers in the south of England and the Midlands, which have a lower share of homes listed for sale that are cheaper to buy than rent.
Just a quarter (27%) of homes in the South West and a third (33%) of homes in the East Midlands have mortgage repayments lower than local rents, largely down to higher home prices in these regions, meaning that borrowing costs remain much higher.
Two in five homes listed for sale in London are cheaper per month than renting
London also has a relatively high proportion of homes for sale where mortgage repayments are lower than rents: two in every five homes listed on Zoopla would work out cheaper to buy than to rent.
This is because the gap between rental inflation and house price inflation has been greatest in London over recent years: rents are up by 26.6%, while house prices have increased by only 8.9% over the past five years.
Low price growth and higher rents ultimately means greater options for first-time buyers, although rents remain high in the capital.
Nine out of 10 homes that are cheaper to buy than rent in London are flats, which typically come with a lower price tag.
This is due to a larger difference between typical FTB monthly mortgage payments and monthly rent payments of £470 in inner London and £170 in outer London.
This is not just the case for London too - potential homeowners keen to secure a mortgage with payments below local rents should look to flats with two in three flats currently available for less than local rent in their respective markets.
Key takeaways
- A third of homes listed for sale (34%) on Zoopla can be bought with a mortgage and repayments that cost less than the average rent in the same area*
- Buying an average home with a 20% deposit on a 30-year term works out as £93 cheaper per month than renting it
- Availability is best in the North East, Scotland and North West, with over 40% of homes having mortgage repayments below rental costs
- Oadby and Wigston area near Leicester has the highest proportion of homes listed for sale that are cheaper to buy than rent
- The majority of homes for sale in Manchester, Newcastle, Southampton and Sheffield could be purchased with mortgage payments below rents
Period properties swallow £700-a-month in upkeep
New research finds that period properties cost the equivalent of a small mortgage in maintenance and upkeep.
We love a character fireplace and ornate cornice as much as the next person, but these period features can come at a price in the long run.
We’ve taken a closer look at the true cost of owning a period property - one that was built before 1919. On average, period home owners have spent more than £19,213 maintaining and repairing their home since the start of 2022.
This is nearly two-and-a-half times the maintenance cost of non-period homes since 2022 (£8,496).
In total, that works out as an extra £700-a-month spent on maintaining a period home, since 2022 - a significant proportion of the current average monthly mortgage cost of £950.
And over the whole time they’ve been in their period home - which averages 16.8 years - owners of period homes have spent a whopping £68,000 on upkeep.
What are the most common issues with period homes?
Most of the time, these maintenance costs are on fixing external elements of a period home. This includes:
-
Roofing
-
Brickwork
-
Garden maintenance
-
External walls
-
Leaning chimneys
Period homeowners have spent an estimated £12,865 on these external fixes since 2022, whereas owners of non-period homes only spent £4,314 on them.
And when it comes to internal maintenance, period homeowners have spent a further £6,348, covering things like:
-
Flooring
-
Bathrooms
-
Electricals
-
Removing mould
-
Upgrading insulation
-
Fixing wiring and electrics.
On the other hand, those in non-period homes have only spent £4,182 on internal maintenance. It drops to just £2,915 for those who own a new-build home (built in or after 2020).
Is it worth buying a period property?
The costs of running a period home have caught many homeowners out.
A fifth (22%) say they didn’t realise how much they would need to spend to maintain, repair and upgrade their property - or they didn’t envisage any costs at all..
And two in five (39%) period home owners say the final cost was more than they had anticipated.
That’s not to say it always comes with regret. 72% of period home owners say the costs are ‘worth it’ and they don’t regret their purchase.
Many period homeowners think that older homes have more character (55%), others love the architectural style (45%) and a third (33%) say original features are a key draw.
What to check before buying a period home
Period properties require regular investment to keep them in good, working order. Be sure to look beyond simply the price of a property and factor in the ongoing maintenance costs when you’re looking for your next home.
And before you buy, invest in a property survey to identify any problems.
This will help you answer questions like:
-
How old is the boiler? They typically have a lifespan of 10-15 years.
-
Is there any mould that’ll need fixing? Sorting out leaky roofs, rising damp or poor ventilation can be costly.
-
What condition are the roof and chimneys in?
-
Are there any signs of Japanese Knotweed? This invasive plant has underground roots that will damage anything in its path.
-
Are there any signs of rot? You’ll need to confirm the extent of the problem and see if it’s treatable - if not, the timber may need replacing.
Looking for less maintenance? A new-build home could be the way to go
There are plenty of options when it comes to era and style of home, with many high quality homes on the market which require less investment in upkeep.
New-build homes are designed to take away the hassle and cost of upkeep compared to older properties.
New builds are constructed to the latest building standards and regulations and, with only your own wear-and-tear to deal with, you’re unlikely to need to fork out for repairs for a good few years.
What’s more, most new-build homes come with warranties to protect you in the case of any issues. Defects are usually covered for 2 years while the structural warranty lasts 10 years.
And if you’re worried about losing that homey feel of a period property, rest assured that there are plenty of design options to make sure your new build is totally your style.
You can often choose exactly how it looks, from the flooring, to the kitchen cabinets, to the garden design.
Whether you go for a new-build, or a place that has been on the block a little while longer, the most important thing is that you choose a home that works for you and your budget.
Key takeaways
- New research finds that owners of period homes built pre-1919 spend an average of £700 per month on upkeep
- The biggest costs go on fixing external elements like roofing, brickwork and walls
- Be sure to get a full survey done before you buy a period home to identify any issues and help anticipate future costs