What to Expect for Mortgage Rates in 2025

Rates are projected to hold steady between 4% and 5%, while relaxed lending criteria may improve affordability for homebuyers.

Following the recent base rate reduction—from 4.5% to 4.25% in May 2025—analysts anticipate that mortgage rates will remain relatively stable, hovering between 4% and 5% throughout the remainder of the year.

Since reaching a high in mid-2023, mortgage costs have steadily eased. Back in June 2023, the average rate for a five-year fixed mortgage at 75% loan-to-value climbed to 5.8%, significantly increasing monthly repayments for many borrowers.

Now, that same loan product has seen a notable decline, with the average rate down to approximately 5.04%, offering some relief to prospective buyers and existing homeowners alike.

Average mortgage rates in May 2025

All average rates are provided by Mojo Mortgages. The above are the average mortgage rates for various products across the market. These won’t necessarily be available to you, and are not the only product types available.

Most forecasters are expecting mortgage rates to remain in the 4-5% range this year, even if inflation and the base rate edge lower.

Our Executive Director of Research, Richard Donnell, says: ‘Expectations of lower interest rates are already priced into fixed rate mortgages today.

‘Lower interest rates would likely result in further modest declines in mortgage rates but how far depends on how low money markets see base rates falling.

‘Economists currently expect base rates to fall to 3.5% by the end of 2025, which would imply mortgage rates remaining in and around the 4%+ range.’

Why are mortgage rates going down?

Mortgage rates began to go down in the latter half of 2023, as inflation dropped from 6.3% in September to 4.2% in December.

In June 2024, inflation hit its 2% target, but it has risen slightly since then and is currently sitting at 2.6%.

The Bank of England cut the base rate twice last year, first in August and again in November – and then again in February 2025.

At the most recent Bank of England meeting in May 2025, the Bank dropped the base rate to 4.25%. Some forecasters are predicting it will fall further by the end of the year.

The bank rate determines the interest rate the Bank of England pays to commercial banks that hold money with them. It influences the rates those banks charge people to borrow money or pay on their savings.

What factors affect interest rates?

Inflation is the main reason interest rates have been high in the UK over the last 3 years. An unexpected rise in demand – or decrease in supply – can cause inflation to rise.

At the end of 2021, the Bank of England began to raise the base rate in order to reduce inflation and help slow down price rises for everyday items including food, petrol, gas and electricity.

Inflation is currently hovering over its 2% target at 2.6%, so the Bank of England needs to keep the base rate high enough to ensure inflation doesn’t rise again.

Global shocks can also have an impact on inflation, such as wars, pandemics and tariffs as they affect the flow of goods around the world.

Easing Affordability Tests Could Strengthen Buyer Confidence in 2025

A shift in how lenders assess mortgage applications may soon improve access to home financing. One significant change on the horizon is the easing of affordability checks, which could help boost borrowing power and reinvigorate housing market activity this year.

Although borrowers typically focus on their actual mortgage rate—currently averaging around 4.5% for a 5-year fixed term—lenders also assess whether they could afford repayments at a much higher hypothetical “stress” rate. At present, many lenders use stress rates of 8–9%, making it harder for buyers with smaller deposits to qualify.

If lenders return to pre-2022 stress levels of 6.5–7%, buyers could see their borrowing capacity increase by up to 20%. For example, a first-time buyer currently needing to show they can cover £1,550 in monthly payments at an 8.5% stress rate would only need to demonstrate affordability at £1,275 under a 6.5% rate—freeing up their budget and increasing buying options. While the exact impact varies by lender and borrower type, the effect would likely support housing demand and sales.

However, it’s important to note that other mortgage regulations and criteria will continue to influence access to credit.

Housing Market Sees More Listings—and More Buyer Choice

As of early 2025, the number of homes on the market is up 12% compared to last year. With more sellers entering the market—many of whom are also planning to buy—there’s greater choice for prospective buyers.

This increased inventory may limit upward pressure on prices. “We believe the wider availability of homes will help keep house price growth moderate,” explains Donnell. Buyers may find more room to negotiate, especially on properties that aren’t drawing much interest.

Affordable Regions Lead the Way in Sales Growth

Despite cost pressures from higher mortgage rates, demand remains strong in lower-priced areas. Recent data shows that regions with more accessible housing continue to outperform others.

“Sales volumes are climbing across the UK, but we’re seeing the most robust growth in places with more affordable homes,” says Donnell. Wales, the North West, and the North East are currently leading the way, each with a 10–14% annual increase in sales activity.

These trends highlight the resilience of the market and point to a potential shift in buyer behavior as affordability remains a key driver in 2025.

Key takeaways

• Mortgage rates are expected to hold steady around 4-5% throughout 2025
• A two-year variable rate with a 75% loan-to-value ratio currently averages 4.75% while the average five-year fixed term sits at 5.04%
• The base rate dropped to 4.25% in May 2025 in positive news for households
• Changes to affordability testing by mortgage lenders could make it easier for buyers to borrow
• The Base Rate could fall further by the end of 2025