Will mortgage rates go down in 2024?

Mortgage rates unlikely to drop below 4% in 2024

Buyers holding out for lower mortgage rates in 2024 may be disappointed, as they are unlikely to decline much further this year, even if inflation and the Base Rate edge lower.

Our Executive Director of Research, Richard Donnell, says: ‘Expectations of lower interest rates are already priced into fixed rate mortgages today.

‘Lower interest rates would likely result in further modest declines in mortgage rates but how far depends on how low money markets see base rates falling.

‘Economists currently expect base rates to fall to 3.5% by the end of 2025, which would imply mortgage rates remaining in and around the 4%+ range.’

Why are mortgage rates going down?

Mortgage rates began to go down in the latter half of 2023, as inflation dropped from 6.3% in September to 4.2% in December.

In June this year, inflation hit its 2% target, but it has risen slightly since then and is currently sitting at 2.2%.

However, the Bank of England held the base rate at 5.25% 7 times in a row, until it met in August this year, when it lowered it to 5%.

By the end of 2025, it’s expected to lower it to 3.5%.

The bank rate determines the interest rate the Bank of England pays to commercial banks that hold money with them. It influences the rates those banks charge people to borrow money or pay on their savings.

What factors affect interest rates?

Inflation is the main reason interest rates have been high in the UK over the last 30 months. An unexpected rise in demand – or decrease in supply – can cause inflation to rise.

At the end of 2021, the Bank of England began to raise the base rate in order to reduce inflation and help slow down price rises for everyday items including food, petrol, gas and electricity.

It has worked – and inflation is currently hovering around its 2% target, but the Bank of England needs to keep the base rate high enough to ensure inflation doesn’t rise again.

Global shocks can also have an impact on inflation, such as wars, pandemics or the blockage of major transport routes like the Suez Canal, as they affect the flow of goods around the globe.

How buyer affordability could improve in 2024

All that said, there are other ways in which buyer affordability is likely to improve this year: and that’s wages rising while house prices hold steady.

This trend is happening already, and it’s improving confidence among buyers.

‘Rising household disposable incomes are expected to be the primary driver of improved housing affordability over 2024,’ says Donnell.

‘Disposable incomes are projected to increase by 3.5% over 2024, while house prices look set to remain broadly flat over the year.’

In fact, momentum in the housing market is already ticking up and the number of sales agreed has climbed 9% year-on-year.

This, in turn, is encouraging more sellers to come to market, improving the choice available for buyers.

More choice for buyers in 2024

There are now more homes for sale than at any point in the last six years. This is improving choice for home buyers and supporting more sales.

The average estate agent has 33 homes for sale, which is 16% higher than a year ago.

More supply means more sellers, most of whom are also buyers.

And more choice for buyers means more opportunity for wriggle room when it comes to paying the asking price.

‘Our view is that a greater availability of homes for sale will keep price rises in check,’ says Donnell.

‘This means buyers have more choice and room to negotiate, especially where homes are failing to attract buyer interest in a timely manner.’

Affordable areas remain popular with buyers

While momentum is up among buyers and sellers across the UK, in more challenging mortgage rate times, it’s the affordable areas that are proving to be the biggest draw for buyers.

‘Sales activity is up across the board, with the strongest growth in sales taking place in areas with more affordable house prices, such as Yorkshire and the Humber (11%) and the North West (13%),’ says Donnell.

Meanwhile, the strongest growth in new sellers listing homes can be seen in the South West (28%) and North East (26%).

Over in the capital, the supply of homes for sale is just 8% higher, which means house prices are rebounding faster here than other parts of the UK, as more buyers compete for properties.

Asking price discounts narrow as house prices hold steady

While it remains a buyers’ market right now, buyers should know that the discounts being offered by sellers are starting to get smaller.

UK buyers are currently paying 96.8% of the asking price, which is up from 95.6% last October.

In value terms, this averages at £16,600 below the asking price for sales agreed in June 2024, compared to £23,000 below the asking price in October 2023.

There continues to be a north/south divide in house prices, with homes in the south continuing to register house price falls as homes in the north see house price growth.

But all areas are recording higher annual price inflation than six months ago, as sales volumes recover and pricing levels firm.

So while there’s still room to negotiate, house prices are starting to hold steady in 2024 and we don’t expect to see a further fall in property prices this year.