Inflation stubbornly high but mortgage rates edge lower

Mortgage deals now available at sub 4% rates - and inflation still expected to fall quickly in the second half of this year.

Inflation remains stubbornly high suggesting the Bank of England will increase interest rates further.

The rate at which the cost of goods and services are rising – as measured by the Consumer Prices Index – fell slightly in March, dropping from 10.4% to 10.1%.

But the fall was lower than economists had been expecting, with inflation still more than five times higher than the Bank’s 2% target.

As a result, commentators are predicting the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will increase the Bank Rate again when it meets in May, and possibly make further hikes later in the year, dashing hopes that interest rates had already peaked.

But despite rising interest rates, mortgage rates are continuing to fall, with best buy deals currently available with rates of less than 4%.

Why is this happening?

Inflation has remained stubbornly high, despite the MPC increasing the official cost of borrowing from 0.1% in December to 4.25% now.

The high level of inflation is being driven by a number of factors including the conflict in Ukraine, which has pushed food and energy prices higher, the resumption of normal life after Covid and issues relating to the weather.

A very hot summer in Asia and cold winter in Europe in 2022 increased the demand for electricity to power air con and heating, at a time when suppliers were hit by the invasion of Ukraine, which pushed fuel prices higher.

Adverse weather has also impacted food production, with hot weather across Europe affecting salad and soft fruit crops, while droughts in Argentina have affecting soybean harvests, further driving up food prices.

(Soybeans are used to make soybean oil, the main substitute for sunflower oil, which is in short supply due to the war in the Ukraine.)

However, economists are still expecting inflation to start falling quickly in the second half of the year.

In particular, they are predicting steep price falls in gas and electricity prices, which is good news for consumers.

Once inflation gets closer to its 2% target, the MPC can then consider cutting the Bank Rate to help support the economy.

What should I do if I need to remortgage?

While the prospect of another rise in interest rates may be alarming if you need to remortgage, you shouldn’t panic.

Mortgage rates have actually been moving in the opposite direction to interest rates for some time now, with the average cost of a five-year fixed rate mortgage falling by 0.23% since October, despite the Bank Rate increasing by 2% during the same period.

If you need to remortgage, you will have to decide whether or not to opt for a fixed rate deal or a tracker product.

Under a fixed rate mortgage, the amount of interest you pay will stay the same for the duration of your product term, typically two or five years, giving you the security that your monthly repayments will not increase.

If you take out a tracker deal, your interest rate will move up and down in line with changes to the Bank Rate.

Average tracker rates are currently 0.48% lower than the average two-year fixed rate mortgage, but this could change if the MPC increases interest rates again, as any rise would be passed on to you.

That said, if inflation does start to fall and interest rates are cut, you would benefit from the reduction if you are on a tracker mortgage.

If you opt for a fixed rate mortgage, you will need to decide whether to fix for two years or five years.

Five-year deals are currently 0.32% cheaper than two-year ones, but remember that despite high inflation, interest rates are still likely to be close to peaking, so if you fix for five-years you will be locked into these higher rates for longer.

It is also important to remember that fixed rate mortgages typically have early redemption penalties, so if you take out a five-year deal, you need to be confident you will not need to end it early.

Whatever you decide to do, it is important to shop around. The average rate charged on a two-year fixed rate mortgage is currently 5.32%, but the most competitive rates on offer start at 3.99%, with some five-year fixed rate mortgages available for 3.92%.

If you are coming to the end of your mortgage term, you should start planning now.

Lenders will let you ‘book’ a rate up to six months before you need to remortgage.

The average standard variable rate – the rate you are automatically put on if you do not remortgage - is currently 7.12%, so you want to avoid that if possible.

What does this mean for the housing market?

Although mortgage rates are significantly higher than they were a year ago, the number of people falling behind with their monthly repayments remains low by historic standards.

Lenders are expecting to see an increase in the number of people struggling with their mortgage, but this is unlikely to lead to a big jump in homeowners who are forced to sell their property.

This is partly because banks are obliged by the regulator to work with customers to find a solution and can only repossess a home as a last resort.

At the same time, employment levels remain high. In fact, recent government data showed that the unemployment rate is currently just 3.8%.

As a result, there are unlikely to be a high level of forced sales, which is good news for the property market.

Instead, higher interest rates are likely to cause activity in the housing market to be more subdued than in recent years.

The number of people looking to buy a home fell sharply in the wake of the mini-Budget, which caused a steep rise in mortgage rates.

But there are already signs that demand is recovering, with buyer numbers reaching their highest level since October in March.

Property values are just 1% lower than they were in October, and while some ‘soft repricing’ is expected to continue, with sellers making modest downward adjustments to match what buyers are prepared to pay, there are not likely to be steep house price falls.

Meanwhile, the number of homes for sale has increased, offering more choice for potential buyers following years in which the market has been plagued by a shortage of stock.

Key takeaways

  • Inflation remains stubbornly high suggesting the Bank of England will increase interest rates further
  • But mortgage rates are continuing to fall, with best buy deals currently available for below 4%
  • And economists still expect inflation to start falling quickly in the second half of the year.

 


Landlords support new standards for rented homes

Six out of 10 landlords are in favour of the introduction of the Decent Homes Standard, the biggest shake up in the private rented sector for 30 years.

Six out of 10 landlords are in favour of government plans to introduce new minimum standards for rented homes.

A third of landlords said they strongly supported the Decent Homes Standard for properties in the private rented sector, while 28% said they generally supported it, according to research by Paragon Bank.

Only 8% of landlords questioned said they were unaware of the change.

The government has pledged to introduce the Decent Homes Standard for the private rented sector as part of the Renters Reform Bill, which will be introduced during the current parliamentary session.

Not only do landlords support the move, but 74% also expressed frustration with the lack of action taken against rogue landlords, saying local authorities should do more to drive out those who let sub-standard homes.

Richard Rowntree, managing director of mortgages at Paragon Bank, said: “The vast majority of landlords have nothing to fear from a Decent Homes Standard as they are providing a good quality home to their tenants already.

“It’s the minority of landlords who don’t meet these standards that are tarnishing the wider reputation of the sector.”

Why is this happening?

Although the majority of renters live in homes that are safe, the government wants to do more to help the one in five people who live in a property that is considered to be unfit, more than half of which pose a risk to renters’ health and safety.

The proportion of homes that are classed as being non-decent has nearly halved during the past five-years, falling from 44% in 2018 to 23% in 2023, according to the latest English Housing Survey.

Even so, nearly 1 million properties in the private rented sector are still classed as being non-decent.

The Decent Homes Standard requires homes to be in a reasonable state of repair, have reasonably modern facilities and services, and provide a reasonable degree of thermal comfort.

If homes fall below this standard, renters can have their rent repaid.

Who does it affect?

The introduction of a Decent Homes Standard is great news for those who rent in the private sector, as it means they will no longer have to put up with sub-standard accommodation.

The move also brings the private rental sector in line with the social one, which has had a Decent Homes Standard since 2001.

The research suggests the majority of landlords are also in favour of the change.

In fact, a separate study conducted by Paragon Bank found that 81% of landlords in the private rented sector upgrade each new property they buy, with 18% spending between £10,000 and £20,000 on improvements and 22% spending more than £25,000.

Around 83% of landlords said they made the changes to ensure they were providing a decent home to their tenants, while 82% said they wanted to make the property more attractive to tenants and 66% hoped to increase the rent they could charge.

What’s the background?

Alongside introducing the Decent Homes Standard, the Renters Reform Bill includes a number of measures to protect renters, including ending section 21 ‘no fault’ evictions.

Other changes include making it illegal for landlords to have blanket bans on families with children or people receiving benefits, and it will also be easier for renters to have pets.

Arbitrary rent review clauses will be outlawed, and notice periods for rent increases will be doubled. Renters will also have stronger powers to challenge rent rises if they think they are unjustified.

The introduction of the bill will also see all renters moved into a single system of ‘periodic tenancies’, enabling them to leave poor quality housing without remaining liable for the rent, and making it easier for people to move if their circumstances change.

The government claims the changes are the biggest shake up for the private rented sector for 30 years.

Key takeaways

  • 74% of landlords also expressed frustration with the lack of action taken against rogue landlords, saying local authorities should do more to drive out those who let sub-standard homes
  • The proportion of homes that are classed as being non-decent has nearly halved during the past five-years, falling from 44% in 2018 to 23% in 2023
  • The change is part of the Renters Reform Bill, which gives renters greater rights

 


New planning permission rules for holiday lets in tourist hotspots?

New short term let rules being considered to protect communities in England's holiday destinations.

The government is proposing new rules for holiday lets to protect local communities in tourist hotspots.

Under the news rules, which are currently out for consultation, homeowners in England would be required to get planning permission before renting out their property as a short-term let.

The move aims to help prevent local people from being priced out of the property market in areas that are popular holiday destinations.

Michael Gove, Secretary of State for Levelling Up Housing and Communities, said: “Tourism brings many benefits to our economy but in too many communities we have seen local people pushed out of cherished towns, cities and villages by huge numbers of short-term lets.

“I’m determined that we ensure that more people have access to local homes at affordable prices, and that we prioritise families desperate to rent or buy a home of their own close to where they work.”

Why is this happening?

The popularity of short-term lets has soared in recent years due to a combination of online platforms, such as Airbnb, and a rise in people opting for staycations following the COVID-19 pandemic.

But while the jump in availability of holiday properties is good for tourists, local people in some tourist hotspots have found themselves priced out of the property market.

There have also been complaints that popular destinations have become ghost towns outside of the holiday season, while they also face labour shortages due to the lack of affordable local accommodation to rent or buy.

Who does it affect?

The move is potentially good news for people who live in tourist hotspots who are struggling to get on to the property ladder, as it should help to ensure that house price rises are more sustainable.

It is less good for people who had hoped to invest in a holiday let in a popular area, particularly if they are considering this as an alternative to a buy-to-let property, after these have been hit by significant tax rises in recent years.

But the move should not impact homeowners in holiday areas who want to rent out their home on an occasional basis, such as while they go away themselves.

The consultation is looking at whether homeowners should have the flexibility to rent out their home for a set number of nights, such as 30, 60 or 90 nights each year without needing to obtain planning permission.

The changes will only impact short-term lets, and will not affect hotels, hostels or B&Bs.

What’s the background?

The proposals come as the Department for Culture, Media and Sport launches a separate consultation on a new registration scheme for short-term lets.

The scheme aims to build a picture of how many short-term lets there are across the country and where they are located, to try to understand what impact short-term lets have on local communities.

Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer explained that while the government understood the benefits for tourists that flexible short-term lets offered, these should not come at the expense of local people who wanted to buy their own home.

It hopes that through gathering data on the situation, it will be able to help get the balance right and address some of the concerns of local communities.

Key takeaways

  • The government is proposing new rules for holiday lets to protect local communities in tourist hotspots
  • Homeowners in England would be required to get planning permission before renting out their property as a short-term let
  • The move aims to help stop local people from being priced out of the property market in areas that are popular holiday destinations

 


Banks reduce lending: will mortgage rates go down?

Mortgage lenders are becoming more risk averse as a rising number of homeowners struggle to keep up with their mortgage repayments - but will mortgage rates go down?

Banks are becoming more strict with mortgage lending criteria as the number of people falling behind with their mortgage rose during the first three months of 2023.

Mortgage lenders expect this trend to continue going forward and, as a result, they plan to tighten their credit scoring criteria.

They will also reduce lending to people with smaller deposits, according to the latest Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey.

Mortgage lenders cited the changing economic outlook and a reduced appetite for risk for their increased caution, as well as the slowdown in the UK housing market.

The tightening comes at a time when demand for mortgages is expected to rise to a near-two-year high, particularly among people remortgaging.

But there is still good news if you're wondering whether mortgage rates will go down.

The interest charged on fixed-rate mortgages has recently fallen to a six-month low and there is a wide range of mortgage products to choose from.

Why are mortgage lenders tightening their criteria?

Household budgets have been impacted by the combination of the cost-of-living squeeze and rising interest rates.

The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has increased the Bank Rate by 4.15% since December 2021, adding around £446 a month to mortgage repayments for someone with a £200,000 mortgage.

The cost-of-living crisis and these higher mortgage rates have impacted some people’s ability to afford their monthly mortgage payments.

And in turn, it's making lenders more cautious about lending.

But despite some problems in the US and European banking sectors, lenders are not anticipating a wider credit crunch such as that seen during the global financial crisis.

Buyers with smaller deposits to be most impacted by tighter mortgage criteria

Mortgage lenders have indicated that the drop in mortgage availability will have the biggest impact on home buyers with smaller deposits and homeowners with smaller equity in their properties.

There will be the biggest decline in mortgage lending to those with house deposits or equity of 25% or less, while there may be a slight reduction in lending to people with higher stakes in their home.

Understanding your loan-to-value ratio

Despite this, the availability of mortgages for people with a 10% deposit will only reduce slightly.

Mortgage lenders also expect no change in the number of mortgage applications they approve.

This is a significant turnaround from the final three months of 2022 when lenders were much more picky about who they lent to.

Number of available mortgage products recovers to pre-mini budget levels

While banks are tightening their lending criteria, there’s no need to be alarmed if you're buying or remortgaging.

The number of mortgage deals available has recovered to the same level as before the mini budget in October 2022. This includes more than 500 mortgages on offer for people with a 10% deposit.

Average mortgage rates have also continued to come down, despite increases to the Base Rate, with the typical cost of fixed rate deals recently falling to a six-month low.

The biggest decision will be whether to opt for a fixed rate mortgage, for which the interest rate stays the same for the term, or a tracker one, where the interest you pay moves up and down in line with the Bank Rate.

Will mortgage rates go down?

Average mortgage rates in the UK are currently:

  • 4.48% for a tracker mortgage

  • 5.32% for a two-year fixed rate mortgage

  • 5.00% for a five-year fixed rate mortgage, although sub-4% mortgage rates are available if you shop around.

Back in February, the cost of a two-year fixed rate mortgage was 5.44% while the cost of a five-year fixed rate mortgage was 5.20%.

And in January these mortgage rates sat at 5.79% and 5.63% respectively, showing that mortgage rates have gone down over the first few months of the year.

Our Director of Research Richard Donnell thinks that fixed mortgage rates will be at 4-4.75% throughout 2023.

"We expect fixed rate mortgage rates for new business to sit between 4% and 4.75% for much of 2023. This is low by historic standards but means the average buyer will face an increase of £200 to £500-a-month more in mortgage repayments than at the start of 2022, when mortgage rates were much lower."

Which type of mortgage is right for you?

If you take out a tracker mortgage, your monthly repayments will increase if the MPC increases interest rates again. But you could also see them fall if the MPC starts to cut the official cost of borrowing.

If you prefer the certainty offered by a fixed rate mortgage, you will need to decide whether to fix for two years or five.

Mortgage calculator: work out your mortgage repayments

Five year deals are currently cheaper than two year ones, but interest rates are thought to be close to peaking. If mortgage rates start to come down, you’ll be locked into the rate for longer.

Whatever you decide to do, it’s a good idea not to stay on your lender’s standard variable rate for too long as these currently average a mortgage rate of 7.12%. This is the rate you automatically revert to when your current deal ends.

 

Key takeaways

  • Banks are tightening their mortgage lending criteria as more homeowners struggle to keep up with their mortgage repayments
  • Mortgage lenders plan to tighten their credit scoring criteria and reduce lending to people with smaller house deposits
  • But interest rates for fixed mortgages are going down and have reached a six-month low, while there is a wide choice of available mortgage products
  • The average cost of a five-year fixed rate mortgage is now 5.00%, down from 5.63% in January 2023
  • The average cost of a two-year fixed rate mortgage is now 5.32%, down from 5.79% in January 2023